Debt Economies vs Savings Economies (want infos) - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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Everything from personal credit card debt to government borrowing debt.

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By Tup
#1651118
I cannot be sure as to what you mean by "Debt Economies vs Savings Economies", but if you are referring to the net saving or borrowing of an economy/country with respect to the rest of the world then the following analysis might be useful to you:

When a country borrows from the rest of the world it experiences a trade deficit equal in magnitude to the borrowing (well, this isn't really true as changes in the prices of foreign and domestic assets can also affect the trade balance - more on this later). When a country lends to the rest of the world it experiences a trade surplus equal in magnitude to the lending (the caveat also applies here). Over time the borrowing countries will become indebted to the lending countries. Each year the indebted countries will be required to pay interest on their debt to the lending countries. Also, those countries with trade deficits will become, to some extent at least, dependent on those countries with trade surpluses.

explanation of caveat: If capital markets are highly integrated as they currently are in many countries, then a portion of each countries assets will be owned by citizens of most other countries - regardless of the various countries' net positions. Consequently, if the price of foreign assets appreciate more rapidly than the price of domestic assets, then domestic holders of foreign assets will become relatively wealthier while foreign holders of domestic assets will become relatively less wealthy. In essence, the appreciation of foreign assets relative to domestic assets improves the net debt position of a country without requiring the country to decrease its trade deficit. This situation is not merely theoretical/hypothetical, the USA has been experiencing the benefits of this phenomenon for years. The USA would owe a lot more to the rest of the world right now if it were not for the fact that foreign assets held by US citizens have tended to appreciate relative to the US assets held by foreigners.

If you meant by "Debt Economies vs Savings Economies" the extent to which governments of countries borrow or save then I could provide some analysis of that situation.
By smashthestate
#1651130
Tup wrote:The USA would owe a lot more to the rest of the world right now if it were not for the fact that foreign assets held by US citizens have tended to appreciate relative to the US assets held by foreigners.

Curiously, this fact is not accounted for in trade accounting. The reasons that a country can even have a trade deficit are many, and we can go into those another time. As Milton Friedman pointed out, the best possible scenario for a country with a trade deficit is to have its foreign-owned assets cycled through trade around the world, and never find their way back to the home country's account. While this happens very seldom, it is a phenomenon which essentially amounts to free goods for the indebted country.

In popular media, the balance of payments is reported very 'one-sidedly'. It focuses almost solely on the current account and completely ignores the capital account. The capital account is always and necessarily equal to the current account. The this account is, mostly, held by foreigners as interest-bearing assets, but is often re-invested back into the U.S. (as the U.S. has a very good reputation as an investing country). Of course, the ratio of reinvestments to assets held depends largely on the status of the assets' value. If the assets experience a sharp decline in value, then the interest payments to those assets will also decline, and the owner will be more likely to redeem those assets in the form of reinvestment.

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