[roxunreal]

If you wanted to target Russian-speaking, pro-Russia, Russian Orthodox Ukrainians, you couldn't round them up in Lvov or Kiev. You'd go to those areas where they live in almost uniform populations.

Nonsense. Jews didn't live in uniform Jewish only regions in WW2 Europe yet they were singled out and killed. Armenians didn't live in Armenian only parts of Baku and Sumgait yet they were pogromed anyway. Russians in Ukrainian controlled areas have seen absolutely no sign of any campaign to massacre or exile them whatsoever, so just drop the charade already. If it hasn't happened in Slavyansk or Kramatorsk after the war, it wouldn't happen in Donetsk or Luhansk either.

You asked why there was so little violence against unarmed Russian-speaking Ukrainians (which is not true anyway: the number of civilians killed in the "anti-terrorist" operation has been raised to 3,000+ and the number of injured and refugees has gone up as well)

Those civilians died as part of the war operations against the separatists, not as part of targeted killings of "all Russians in Ukraine". Where is the violence against Russians in Ukrainian controlled areas?
Where are the persecuted, massacred and ethnically cleansed Russians in Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Mariupol and elsewhere outside separatist controlled areas? I guess they are oppressing them by distributing food from food convoys and inviting foreign ambassadors to observe the post-war reconstruction in those areas.

also why isn't police walking around Kiev and fining or beating up people speaking Russian in the largely Russophone city that it is? How can there be a violent campaign against Russian language and yet everyone in the capital freely speaks it all the time?

I gave you the answer. It's because they armed themselves and the area where the right vector would have made a killing, so to speak, was cut off to them.

Who are you kidding, who armed themselves and cut off themselves from Ukrainian authority? The people in Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Mariupiol, places crawling with the Ukrainian army and places where mostly Russians live, yet with no sign of "putting a bullet into every Russian's head"? Again, understand that I am not talking about separatist controlled areas, that's another discussion entirely, but there are millions of Russians in Ukrainian controlled areas, which are not "cut off" from Ukraine as is part of the Donbas, and yet there are no killings and expulsions to be found anywhere? How is that when you would have us believe that these horrible Ukrainian nazi vampires want to kill every Russian in the country?

Nice. Crimeans/Russians don't have even a semblance of human decency. Wonder where her family that stayed figure on this reasoning? Just like that! She has human decency because she moved to Kiev—and they, and everyone else, have none because they stay in Crimea (where the electricity is on all day...).

People stay because they cannot afford to leave and everything they have is there, others stay because they favor the ideology, but none of this has anything to do with human decency. Most Germans liked Hitler, would you call them all standards of human decency? There is nothing at all decent or dignified in the way Putin runs things.

As for human political evolution. Let's see whose employment index and GDP is better after 10 years of Crimea in the Russian Federation.

Judging by how many irradiated, impoverished and forgotten shitholes exist across Russia, yes, let's see. By the way political evolution means political evolution, not economic evolution. Get the difference.

Silly, just very silly. The European benchmark? The EU's economy is stalled and in deflation.

Good thing Russia is an economic world leader, with many famous and respected Russian products being used across the world such as....wait, what does Russia actually produce except weapons? Take away the fossil fuel industry and you would have Eurasian Yemen in a year. In the end the west was in a much worse depression in the 30's and still recovered and continued leading after that. I have no fears about Europe.

While China, India, Japan, Russia (all emerging powers taken by themselves) and others work together, Ukraine is tying itself down to a sinking ship.

Yes Japan is really working well with Russia, hence its own independent sanctions against it.

And as for the question of systems of governance in principle, actual human political evolution is leaving behind and moving beyond the outdated and conspicuously failed Western Liberal democracy "one-size-fits-all" paradigm. Which is a Euro-Atlanticist ideal that is more than 30 years behind the real emerging world of today.

Yes it's such a failed system that people are standing in line to live in places like Russia, China, Belarus and Kazakhstan and not in places like Canada, western Europe, Scandinavia and even the shitty USA. That people prefer a country where you can become homeless if you become sick like the US rather than Russia says enough about your "emerging world". For these places to become actually decent enough to approach in any way the west, let alone move beyond it, in a political and "human decency" sense, they need to first stop being run by self-appointed "strongmen" like they are their personal fief and start listening to and respecting their own people and their own wishes without jailing and killing them for voicing different opinions and ideas.

[Ideational Ontarian]

Those civilians died as part of the war operations against the separatists, not as part of targeted killings of "all Russians in Ukraine". Where is the violence against Russians in Ukrainian controlled areas?
Where are the persecuted, massacred and ethnically cleansed Russians in Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Mariupol and elsewhere outside separatist controlled areas? I guess they are oppressing them by distributing food from food convoys and inviting foreign ambassadors to observe the post-war reconstruction in those areas.

also why isn't police walking around Kiev and fining or beating up people speaking Russian in the largely Russophone city that it is? How can there be a violent campaign against Russian language and yet everyone in the capital freely speaks it all the time?

Stop Rox, you are burning a hole in the paper-thin casus belli of the Russian imperialists.

[roxunreal]

Yes, silly me not to let the emperor enjoy his new clothes for a while longer.

[pikachu]

From yesterday, worth taking a note:

Pro-Russian separatists and representatives from Kiev and Moscow agreed on Saturday on further measures to ensure a cease-fire between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian separatists.

Violations of a Sept. 5 cease-fire between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian separatists, whom Kiev says have been reinforced by Russian weapons and soldiers crossing over the two countries' porous border, have kept Ukrainian troops on full alert.

Former president Leonid Kuchma, representing Kiev at talks of the "contact group", said the two sides had agreed to move artillery 15 kilometers (9 miles) away from the front line on both sides, to create a 30 kilometer (18 mile) buffer zone.

"Heavy artillery will be moved 15 kilometers away from the front line," said Kuchma after the talks that lasted several hours in a hotel in central Minsk.

He also said that monitors from the European rights and security OSCE watchdog would be checking the 30 kilometer buffer zone along the front line.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko agreed to a cease-fire with the rebels shortly after Ukrainian forces suffered reverses on the battlefield that saw them lose a southern swath of the Donetsk region along the border with Russia.

Kiev says Russia has helped the rebels with weapons and more than 1,000 Russian troops.

Russia denies it has any role in eastern Ukraine.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/ ... JD20140919

Despite continuing exchanges of fire on the ground, the political will for the ceasefire clearly exists on both sides for now. Each side is having difficulty explaining it to its constituents. Since the Sept 5th ceasefire agreement, the following events of note had taken place:
-Kiev forces broke through the blockade of the Donetsk airport and reinforced it with heavy armor. It is unclear if the airport is still blockaded or not anymore, I will presume that it's not.
-The Ukrainian army advanced near Debaltsevo and de-blockaded its troops in the pocket to the south-east of Horlivka. The troops then withdrew without a fight yesterday to Debaltsevo. Debaltsevo itself has a thin supply line and is threatened with encirclement by the rebels to the north, so the withdrawal makes sense.
-The rebels have abandoned the western approaches to Mariupol. The fact that the rebel presence west of Mariupol was always logistically weak, as well as the coordinated withdrawal of a large number of Russian "volunteers" since Sept 5 probably had something to do with that.

There was also a number of unsuccessful attacks reported by both sides.

[roxunreal]

I wonder how the 30km buffer zone translates to the areas around Donetsk and Mariupol...? Clearly the defending forces of both cities don't just intend to give up a whole 15 kilometers from the front lines.

[roxunreal]

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2014/09 ... world&_r=1

Thousands March in Moscow Against Ukraine Fighting

MOSCOW — Thousands of people are marching through central Moscow to demonstrate against the fighting in Ukraine and Russia's alleged complicity in the conflict.

An Associated Press reporter estimates the crowd at about 20,000, although the city police department put the number at about 5,000.

The demonstrators are chanting slogans including "No to war" and "The junta is in the Kremlin, not Kiev." The latter refers to Russia's contention that the ousting of Ukraine's former Russia-friendly president was a coup.

The fighting between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine that erupted after the ouster has killed more than 3,000 people. Ukraine and Western countries claim Russia is supplying troops and equipment to the rebels, which Moscow denies.

[Rich]

We see the democratic pluralistic, tolerant nature of Russia its difficult to imagine such a demonstration against the Kiev warmongers with the Nazi Right Sector boot boys controlling the streets. Of course I expect the facsistic rule in Kiev to receive Rei's full approval.

[pikachu]

Some interesting historical background:

There is one principal historical difference between the today's notion of "Western Ukraine" and "Eastern Ukraine", and the areas which consistently vote pro-Western and pro-Russian respectively since the Ukrainian independence:

The Slav settlement of western Ukraine goes all the way back to the "migration period", later evolving into the Kievan Rus state, its fragmentation, conquest by the Mongols, then Lithuanians, and the eventual Polish dominion. In other words it has both a very long, rich, and distinct history, tied very much into the Central European framework of culture and politics.

By contrast, the organized Slav settlement of Eastern Ukraine did not begin until the 18th and 19th centuries, well after Ukraine had switched from being a Polish dominion to a Russian one. The process of settlement both started and ended under rarely interrupted Moscow rule. Consequently, the history of Eastern Ukraine is very short by comparison, and is inseparable from the history of Russia. Though there were Ukrainians in Kiev and Galicia well before the advent of the Russian Empire, there were next to no Ukrainians in Donbass or Kharkiv before Russia, and there might have never been if not for Russia. The relative shortness of its history also means greater uncertainty in its overall identity, and sets the stage for the present day conflict.

In other words, the difference between West and East Ukraine could also be said to be the difference between "Old" and "New" Ukraine, the Ukraine which traces its identity to the middle ages, and Ukraine which traces its identity to the pan-Russian colonization of the steppes in the 18th and 19th century.

Here's the extent of the Ukrainian settlement in the 15th century, as seen by the Ukrainians themselves, is outlined in the pink border:


Except for Galicia, most of that area at the time was under Lithuanian suzerainty (light green), eventually in a crown union with Poland. In 1569, these lands were ceded by Lithuania to Poland and became subordinate directly to the Polish administration, while Galicia has a distinction of having been directly ruled from Warsaw for much longer.

In this area, under the Polish crown, Ukrainians existed and developed their culture for a quite some time. Here's the map of settlements (without regard to nationality) in mid 17th century, at the time of the Treaty of Pereyaslav, when the Ukrainian Hetmanate became a dominion of the Russian Kingdom (later Empire).


As can be seen from the map, even as late as the treaty of pereyaslav, huge swaths of modern day south-eastern Ukraine were basically devoid of settlement (in gray). Only sporadic rural outposts existed (light blue), as well as one isolated place of organized Ukrainian settlement - Chyhyryn, the capital of the Zaporozhian Cossack Host (in green, the southern part of modern Dnepropetrovsk province). It is no accident that Chyhyryn became the seat of the Host. Its cultural and geographic isolation, located at the very distant edge of the vast Polish state, laid the groundwork for the eventual anti-Polish rebellion which arose in Chyhyryn and spread out from east to west with the occasional help of the Crimean Khan. The anti-Polish rebellion then led to the treaty of Pereyaslav, which put autonomous Ukraine under the Russian rule.

But surrounding Chyhyryn, the capital of the Host, there was an uninhabited Eurasian steppe. From the only two other areas of organized settlement shown on the map, Crimea was populated primarily by the Tatars, some Jews, and Greeks, while southern Odessa was the dominion of Romanians, Turks, Bulgarians, and once again Greeks. There were next to no Ukrainians there.

Another area of curiosity: Trans-carpathia, today's "Zakarpatia" oblast of Ukraine, in the far-western side of the country. As the map shows, it was indeed populated at the time, but it was not populated by Ukrainians per se. It was populated by Rusyns, a population group with a historically distinct ethnic identity.

Indeed, pre-WW2 censuses in Czechoslovakia show the majority of respondents identifying themselves as Rusyns rather than Ukrainians. However, in the aftermath of WW2, the area was annexed by the USSR and rapidly Ukrainized with the Soviet blessing. Today, although an independent Rusyn identity still exists, the majority of the residents of Zakarpatia oblast identify themselves as Ukrainians, likewise in the Ukrainian history books Rusyns had become classified as a sub-part of the overall Ukrainian ethnicity. A sub-identity of sorts. Nonetheless, the area has an undeniably distinct voting pattern from the rest of the country, and it is the only province in Western Ukraine where the pro-Russian political forces tend to do very well.

So if we were to draw a line on the 1654 map, separating the areas of the Ukrainian settlement from non-Ukrainian settlement and the empty steppe, in other words, the Old Ukraine from the New Ukraine, we get this map:


Which indeed corresponds surprisingly well to the voting patterns of the Ukrainians in elections since at least 1994, and especially since 2004.

So what does it mean for today?
First, the "old Ukraine" IS "true Ukraine". Thus any unitary Ukrainian nation-state, should its hands be untied, will always attempt to cater to the Galicians at the expense of the Donbassians, at least in terms of its the policy on history, language, culture, identity, and foreign relations - if not other things. It will also attempt to homogenize the Ukrainian ethnos by assimilating the population of the East into the Western Ukrainian and Galician culture. Federalization can throw a wrench into that process by essentially forcing the state to recognize its own "multiculturalism" and making any homogenization efforts considerably more difficult, likewise making it harder to cater to one side of the country at the expense of the other in general. According to many of the rebels in Eastern Ukraine, this is exactly what they are fighting for - a multicultural Ukraine which respects cultural and ethnic differences and doesn't try to enforce a single identity on everyone. But this is not a natural state of affairs, as any nation-state always tries to eliminate all internal differences which could potentially compromise its "brotherhood and unity". As we've seen, multiculturalism is out of fashion even in the most progressive states of Europe, yet this is exactly the policy that Russia is trying to force upon Ukraine.

Second, there is at least some historical basis for the "New Russia", the state proposed by the rebels and their sympathizers should united Ukraine fail to fulfill their expectations. There is indeed a line running through the central Ukraine which separates the two parts, although the eastern part could be called "New Ukraine" just as much as "New Russia", for it is the offspring of them both working together. However, as the overwhelming majority of Eastern Ukrainians still see themselves as ethnically Ukrainian, this basis is very weak and any potential state of "New Russia" which might form will most likely serve a historically transnational role, as every ideologically-based state did. Ultimately the two parts are still competing over a single cultural space and will unite as soon as the conditions allow for it.

[Ideational Ontarian]

Things have really slowed down in this thread since the ceasefire. I'll have to read Pikachu's essay when I have some more time but I thought I would post these poll results I found on reddit.

Today [Navalny broke down a few survey questions](https://navalny.com/p/3840/) into language-speaking groups. [This was the question](http://i.imgur.com/0AqDTc7.png) about what direction people want the country to go in:

| Language spoken at home/work | Europe | Russia | Independent | I just don't want war | Europe & Russia | Other | It's hard to say
|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|
|Russian home/work| 32.6% | 19.5% | 19.3% | 9% | 2.8% | 10% | 6.8% |
|Ukrainian home/work| 35.2% | 13.6% | 21.6% | 11.5% | 1.3% | 8.8% | 8% |
|Ru home / Ua work| 41.7% | 11.1% | 27.2% | 3.9% | - | 7.8% | 8.3% |
|Ua home / Ru work| 48.6% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 16.7% | 5.7%|
|It's hard to say| 27.3% | 4.5% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 18.2% |

For reference, [here is the same question](http://i.imgur.com/K2mAYhv.jpg) without being broken down (translated by /u/random_racoon; [link to comment](http://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConfli ... ns/ckq76ab)) ([link to yesterday's article](https://navalny.com/p/3836/)):

**Which point do you agree with?**

34% I want future of Ukraine to be tied with Europe

17% I want future of Ukraine to be tied with Russia

17% Neither, Ukraine must be independent

8% neither, i don’t want war.

2% both

9% neither by other reasons

13% can’t answer.

**edit**:

It occurred to me that [the language speaking numbers](http://i.imgur.com/lBs2um7.jpg) would help give even more context to the answers.

**What language do you normally speak at home and at work?**

67% I speak Russian at home and at work

16% I speak Ukrainian at home and at work

7% I speak Russian at home and Ukrainian at work

6% I speak Ukrainian at home and Russian at work

4% It's hard to say

[annatar1914]

Now that things have temporarily slowed down with this conflict, I've had time to reflect, and fully support a robust and powerful sovereign Nation of Ukraine. Ukraine will be the salvation of Europe... This conflict is between Holy Rus (Ukraine), and the cultural remnant of the Golden Horde ('Russia').

[Political Interest]

Now that things have temporarily slowed down with this conflict, I've had time to reflect, and fully support a robust and powerful sovereign Nation of Ukraine. Ukraine will be the salvation of Europe... This conflict is between Holy Rus (Ukraine), and the cultural remnant of the Golden Horde ('Russia').

That is a very interesting change in position. I would have thought that someone like you would be unequivocally supportive of Holy Orthodox Russia against the Catholic/Protestant West.

[Far-Right Sage]

Really rich rendition of the history laid out by Pikachu; it's always appreciated.

I have dropped in as well to deliver riveting news. Orban has showed the parasitic grubs in both Kiev and Brussels his teeth and all gas flowing from the Hungarians to Ukraine to support the Kiev regime has been suspended after Budapest reached a deal with Gazprom.

The Hungarian government - Today the only self-respecting government of character, worth, and a desire for national autonomy and independence in the entire EU.

Hungary ‘indefinitely’ turns off gas supplies to Ukraine

Natural gas deliveries to neighboring Ukraine have been halted “indefinitely”, said Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, a day after securing a new deal with Russian gas giant Gazprom.

Hungary's gas pipeline network operator FGSZ suspended gas supply to Ukraine as of 4pm GMT on Thursday, citing a need to meet increased domestic demand.

“FGSZ Ltd interrupted the gas transmission to Ukraine through the separate pipeline from Testveriseg (Brotherhood) pipeline on the afternoon of the 25th September 2014 for an indefinite period,” the company said in a statement.

Naftogaz, Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company, called the shutoff of supplies “unexplainable and unexpected.”

On Friday, PM Orban, who in the past has likened sanctions with Russia to “shooting oneself in the foot”, announced the country had reached agreement with Gazprom CEO Aleksey Miller to increase gas deliveries to Hungary to fill storage centers before winter. He made the announcement on Hungarian public radio, four days after meeting with Miller in Budapest.

Russia is Hungary's sole source of natural gas, and in 2013 sent 6 billion cubic meters. Gazprom's new South Stream pipeline, due to be complete in 2018, will cross through Hungary. The project will reduce the unreliable passage of Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine.

Earlier in September, Poland was also forced to turn off reverse gas flows to Ukraine, after it claimed Gazprom decreased supplies, which the Russian company denied. A day later, Poland resumed full deliveries to Ukraine.

http://rt.com/business/190840-hungary-stops-gas-ukraine-gazprom/

[annatar1914]

That is a very interesting change in position. I would have thought that someone like you would be unequivocally supportive of Holy Orthodox Russia against the Catholic/Protestant West.

But that's precisely the problem; Russia isn't Holy or Orthodox, but rather an Authoritarian despotic State run as a Kleptocracy and still bogged down by centuries of Imperialism from the Golden Horde to the Soviets. Her 'Orthodox Church' is run as a ministry of the Government practically.

Real Orthodoxy is about freedom, not Autocracy, when you consider her spirituality and the form of self-government flowing from it; a spiritual republic not a roman monarchy or the anarchy of protestantism. While many Ukrainians are romanist Uniates, that itself can be a bridge to bring Old Rome back to Orthodoxy in time. And with the recent crisis, I think nothing will stand in the way now for Ukraine's Orthodox to flock to her Ukrainian Orthodox Autocephalous churches.

Ukraine has problems of it's own, but it bids fair to become one of the very centers of civilization in the Old World, an 'America' on the Black Sea and even greater potentially, for her American-Style system won't be burdened as much as America is, by Heterodoxy and a mixture of cultures and peoples.

[Atlantis]

fully support a robust and powerful sovereign Nation of Ukraine. Ukraine will be the salvation of Europe...

You couldn't be more wrong!

More than 20 years after the creation of the country it has shown itself to be a complete failure both economically and politically. Economically, it is still living off the substance of the Soviet era and GDP has increased less than in any other country on the planet. It's oligarchy, euphemistically called democracy by the West, allows a few oligarchs to prosper while millions of Ukrainians have to earn money abroad and the country continues to fall into corruption. Politically, it is a loose gun with its leaders changing their mind about the direction to take as often as other people change their socks. The political elite has completely failed to build a unified country that takes account of the interests of all ethnic groups.

Ukraine will be the doom of Europe because sanctions will send us back into a new recession after 6 years of recession and politically it will make Europe a pawn in Washington's geopolitical games.

[annatar1914]

You couldn't be more wrong!

Allow me to address your specific concerns please, as I truly see Ukraine in the light I mentioned.

More than 20 years after the creation of the country it has shown itself to be a complete failure both economically and politically

As anyone who saw the United States 20 years after 1776 might have said, with temporary justification.

Economically, it is still living off the substance of the Soviet era and GDP has increased less than in any other country on the planet.

But the resources are there in Ukraine, in potential, to a degree that isn't there elsewhere.

It's oligarchy, euphemistically called democracy by the West, allows a few oligarchs to prosper while millions of Ukrainians have to earn money abroad and the country continues to fall into corruption.

This is the state of affairs across much of the planet today, even in my beloved United States of America. But in Ukraine, the people are slowly but surely doing something about it, the revolution isn't over it's just getting started....

Politically, it is a loose gun with its leaders changing their mind about the direction to take as often as other people change their socks.

Again, as elsewhere this is truly the case. But the Nationalism awakened in the people and this conflict have a way of providing focus in a manner other things cannot. Look at how Iraq's invasion of Iran had an influence on the course of the the revolution there. Ukraine will be an equal geopolitical earthquake if not more so.

The political elite has completely failed to build a unified country that takes account of the interests of all ethnic groups.

Neither did the United States, but the political mechanism is there (our Federalism) to redress genuine injustices. And, ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians do seem to be more united in defense of a Sovereign Ukraine, free and Orthodox, than the Kremlin might have you thinking.

Ukraine will be the doom of Europe because sanctions will send us back into a new recession after 6 years of recession and politically it will make Europe a pawn in Washington's geopolitical games.

Washington isn't the only player in this game. However, Ukraine will restore the balance in favor of Europe, as neither Washington nor Moscow can hold things together as they had in the past. If Europe goes through some trials in the meantime, it will be in order to find her soul. The Ukraine has the potential to own the future in Europe; the resources, the demographics, the nationalism, it's all there.

[Atlantis]

Allow me to address your specific concerns please, as I truly see Ukraine in the light I mentioned.

I do wish you and Ukraine all the best; however, I really think you are wrong.

As anyone who saw the United States 20 years after 1776 might have said, with temporary justification.

Historical comparisons like this are not at all valid. Ukraine is not the US and will never be. It is an economic basket case 10 times the size of Greece.

But the resources are there in Ukraine, in potential, to a degree that isn't there elsewhere.

What resources? Today, everybody can buy resources on the open market. It is state of the art technology that makes a country prosperous and powerful. That bit of shale gas or oil isn't going to do Ukraine any good.

This is the state of affairs across much of the planet today, even in my beloved United States of America.

No, it is not. On the list of Transparency International, Ukraine is listed as one of the most corrupt country behind Togo, Tajikistan and Uganda with a index of 2.3. All successful nations have an index of 7 or higher.

But in Ukraine, the people are slowly but surely doing something about it, the revolution isn't over it's just getting started....

Corruption doesn't go away just because you wish it would. The orange revolution and other reform movements have made things worse not better. Fighting corruption is a long a difficult process. And Ukraine hasn't even started.

Again, as elsewhere this is truly the case. But the Nationalism awakened in the people and this conflict have a way of providing focus in a manner other things cannot.

Ukrainian nationalism is part of the problem not part of the solution.

but the political mechanism is there (our Federalism) to redress genuine injustices.

Kiev has made some token gestures towards federalism under the combined pressure of Russia, the separatists, and the EU. They will turn around when nobody is looking to impose the central power on the region with renewed vigor.

However, Ukraine will restore the balance in favor of Europe, as neither Washington nor Moscow can hold things together as they had in the past. If Europe goes through some trials in the meantime, it will be in order to find her soul. The Ukraine has the potential to own the future in Europe; the resources, the demographics, the nationalism, it's all there.

Ukraine and nationalism are the very forces that are tearing Europe apart. If it was a Serbian terrorist who plunged Europe into the its greatest catastrophe, Ukrainian nationalism will ring in the final act for Europe.

If Ukrainians had any sense, they would be a pivot between East and West as a neutral power getting the best out of both worlds. But nationalists are always determined to prepare their own doom. Nothing will keep them from destruction.

[Far-Right Sage]

Not to mention Atlantis that it's been run by oligarchs for its entire post-Soviet history and didn't even pay off its Soviet debt, which Russia accepted the burden of.

Ukraine isn't really a country and cannot survive as a united state unless one of two things occurs:

1) Geopolitical neutrality between the West (U.S. and a U.S.-dominated EU) and the Russian Federation is maintained as the country's foreign policy direction, which was the course espoused by the Party of Regions and largely the case up until the time President Viktor Yanukovych was violently overthrown, briefly interrupted by the Orange "color" Revolution/Yuschenko's term and a short period immediately following independence

2) There is an ethnic cleansing or genocide and a linguicide of either ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians to make a nationalist in theory but impotent Western system-assimilated state under EU governance, or of the ethnic Ukrainian Ukrainian-speaking population to make one large Novorossiya from the Black Sea to the Polish border

I wish to see Russia's geostrategic goals accomplished at this juncture of European history and where international affairs stand today, I believe it is better to maintain the existence of a powerful rival hegemon to challenge, impede, and chip away at the global system which will never be achieved if Russia is neutered and assimilated as it appeared to be under Yeltsin and early in Putin's term.

As for what's actually better for the population on that territory known today as Ukraine, it would probably be wise to divide the country with Crimea (fortunately already Russian), the Donbass, Odessa, and the surrounding area + everything east and south of it either joining Russia or forming an adjacent Russian-oriented state (Novorossiya) and the central and western parts of the country could form a new post-division entity simply known as "Ukraine" or "the Ukrainian Republic", although some in Warsaw might want a special protection for ethnic Poles in Lviv and nearby areas considering Ukrainian history.

What I still support is what I think will be most effective for advancing the Russian position in Ukraine, which is keeping the eastern regions (including the Donbass) within the territorial framework of the country to better effect a collapse and bringing down of the Kiev regime by armed insurrection, sabotage, terrorism, public pressure from east and west, and economic warfare.

They will turn around when nobody is looking to impose the central power on the region with renewed vigor.

They're already attempting to do so before the ink is dry on anything agreed in Minsk. Poroshenko said in a speech the other day that any form of autonomy for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions is ruled out.

[annatar1914]

I do wish you and Ukraine all the best; however, I really think you are wrong.

We shall see if i'm wrong.

Historical comparisons like this are not at all valid. Ukraine is not the US and will never be. It is an economic basket case 10 times the size of Greece.

America's money at the beginning was absolutely worthless, corruption was rife, rebellion to the central 'government' everywhere, and enemies were eager to break the fledgeling nation into pieces and consume them....

What resources? Today, everybody can buy resources on the open market. It is state of the art technology that makes a country prosperous and powerful. That bit of shale gas or oil isn't going to do Ukraine any good.

Resources are an indispensible start, but the biggest resource any country can have is an educated and free citizenry, Ukraine has at least educated citizens, which will be needed in any modern economy.

No, it is not. On the list of Transparency International, Ukraine is listed as one of the most corrupt country behind Togo, Tajikistan and Uganda with a index of 2.3. All successful nations have an index of 7 or higher.

All new nations are corrupt in the beginning, aside from the cultural and spiritual realities which can serve to end said endemic corruption. It starts with an accountable political class and a republic of laws.

Corruption doesn't go away just because you wish it would. The orange revolution and other reform movements have made things worse not better. Fighting corruption is a long a difficult process. And Ukraine hasn't even started.

They started with Yanukovich.

Ukrainian nationalism is part of the problem not part of the solution.

Actually, the real Ukrainian Nationalists call on Ukraine to be a free and neutral bridge between the European and Eurasian blocs, so I see these Nationalists to be part of the solution indeed.

Kiev has made some token gestures towards federalism under the combined pressure of Russia, the separatists, and the EU. They will turn around when nobody is looking to impose the central power on the region with renewed vigor.

As Lincoln in America showed, you have to have a Center to hold Union together from threats within and without.

Ukraine and nationalism are the very forces that are tearing Europe apart. If it was a Serbian terrorist who plunged Europe into the its greatest catastrophe, Ukrainian nationalism will ring in the final act for Europe.

Depends on one's definition of 'Europe' I guess.

If Ukrainians had any sense, they would be a pivot between East and West as a neutral power getting the best out of both worlds. But nationalists are always determined to prepare their own doom. Nothing will keep them from destruction.

The Ukrainian Nationalists do have sense. Dmitri Yarosh for one is wanting to do exactly what you suggest for Ukraine. Don't be so sanguine and glomy about Ukraine, and Europe's, prospects.

[Atlantis]

Not to mention Atlantis that it's been run by oligarchs for its entire post-Soviet history and didn't even pay off its Soviet debt, which Russia accepted the burden of.

Well, to be honest. Russia didn't do much better. It's a corrupt oligarchy just like Ukraine. The only differences is that they have more resources than they'll ever need. For Russia (and for Europe) it would be much better if the EU had sought closer relations with Russia instead of with Ukraine. To be forced into an alliance with China is far from ideal for Russia.

Ukraine isn't really a country and cannot survive as a united state unless one of two things occurs:

I'm all in favor of keeping the country together. If the East is split off, the West will most certainly be integrated into Nato. But it's up to Ukrainian politicians to create the conditions (federalization, neutrality, etc.) to keep the country together. With the track record of Kiev politicians, I don't have much confidence that they can achieve that.

1) Geopolitical neutrality between the West (U.S. and a U.S.-dominated EU) and the Russian Federation is maintained as the country's foreign policy direction, which was the course espoused by the Party of Regions and largely the case up until the time President Viktor Yanukovych was violently overthrown, briefly interrupted by the Orange "color" Revolution/Yuschenko's term and a short period immediately following independence

Well, they kept on oscillating between East and West without finding their own center of gravity. Yanukovych too tried to play Russia against the EU and the EU against Russia, in true oligarch fashion trying to extort the maximum amount of money out of each side. Neutrality doesn't work like that. No government can work like that. If you change your direction so often, you'll be distrusted by both sides.

I wish to see Russia's geostrategic goals accomplished at this juncture of European history and where international affairs stand today, I believe it is better to maintain the existence of a powerful rival hegemon to challenge, impede, and chip away at the global system which will never be achieved if Russia is neutered and assimilated as it appeared to be under Yeltsin and early in Putin's term.

I'm all in favor of a multipolar world, but Russia doesn't have the economic force to be a power of its own. It could only be a junior partner in an alliance with China. I much prefer to see an alliance between Russia and the EU that will be more independent of Washington.

If Washington wanted to torpedo such an alliance, there could not have been a better means than the nationalist coup in Kiev.

They're already attempting to do so before the ink is dry on anything agreed in Minsk. Poroshenko said in a speech the other day that any form of autonomy for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions is ruled out.

It's impossible to take Kiev politicians seriously. Poroshenko used to advocate Nato membership, now he is supposedly opposed to Nato membership, but already said that Ukraine would demand EU membership in 2020.

[annatar1914]

Well, to be honest. Russia didn't do much better. It's a corrupt oligarchy just like Ukraine. The only differences is that they have more resources than they'll ever need. For Russia (and for Europe) it would be much better if the EU had sought closer relations with Russia instead of with Ukraine. To be forced into an alliance with China is far from ideal for Russia.

Russia is indeed well on her way back under the Yoke with China; this won't end well for Russia. However, it was also historically and geopolitically inevitable given Russia's culture and Eurasianism.

I'm all in favor of keeping the country together. If the East is split off, the West will most certainly be integrated into Nato. But it's up to Ukrainian politicians to create the conditions (federalization, neutrality, etc.) to keep the country together. With the track record of Kiev politicians, I don't have much confidence that they can achieve that.

That's why the destiny of the Ukrainian people ultimately is in their own hands; it is good to scare the politicians, the real reason for the Second Amendment in America.

Well, they kept on oscillating between East and West without finding their own center of gravity. Yanukovych too tried to play Russia against the EU and the EU against Russia, in true oligarch fashion trying to extort the maximum amount of money out of each side. Neutrality doesn't work like that. No government can work like that. If you change your direction so often, you'll be distrusted by both sides.

But recall too that the Ukraine has been a political football between East and West for centuries, and with a newly country this can be a hazard. The United States early on was called upon to be strictly neutral by her Founding Fathers for this and other reasons.

I'm all in favor of a multipolar world, but Russia doesn't have the economic force to be a power of its own. It could only be a junior partner in an alliance with China. I much prefer to see an alliance between Russia and the EU that will be more independent of Washington.

This is the Russian trap.

If Washington wanted to torpedo such an alliance, there could not have been a better means than the nationalist coup in Kiev.

Yes...

It's impossible to take Kiev politicians seriously. Poroshenko used to advocate Nato membership, now he is supposedly opposed to Nato membership, but already said that Ukraine would demand EU membership in 2020.

Which is why the once-marginalized Nationalist parties are waiting in the wings-the revolution isn't over by a long shot I believe.