[Frollein]

Germany needs ‘small miracle’ to avoid recession - Decrease in August biggest since January 2009

German exports suffered the biggest monthly fall in more than five and a half years in August, leaving Europe’s largest economy in need of “a small miracle” to avoid recession in the third quarter.

Exports fell by 5.8% compared with July to €92.6bn (£72.8bn). The decrease is the latest sign of a sharp slowdown in Germany, which has been hit by sanctions between Russia and Europe and a flagging economy in the wider eurozone. (...) Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING, described the current situation in Germany as a “horror story”. (...) Economists said the impact of sanctions between Russia and Europe, as well as slowing economies in some of Germany’s key export markets, were also weighing on the country’s economy.

I already said in this thread that Germany and the EU were ill-advised to start a sanctions war with Russia, especially considering the economic fragility of the Eurozone. That's the second hit after the Greek bomb went off. I doubt it can take a third one without sinking. Meanwhile Russia and China are teaming up....

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I actually agree with this article. Germany should be looking to the East, not the West. I just hope that German business stops complying with Angela's sanctions game.

[Euroman]

Your sources are all crappy and shitty third rate online newspapers. Not much of a source to be honest. And you have been wrong before. Like the time you claimed Russia was bringing humanitarian aid to Ukraine, when they clearly (now totally proven) were bringing Russian weapons and supplies to the terrorists.


Yeah it's fucking shit that Germany had to play the sanctions game with Russia. However, better curb Russia now with sanctions then have a full blown war when Russia starts pushing forward to reclaim East Berlin.


I have met a shitload of German Russia-apologists lately in real life. I have never met a lot that's more short sighted than the German Russia-apologists. They have no fucking idea about the reality on the ground and seriously are believing that Russia is the victim. The anti-American salvation, fucking Russia. Wake up you strategic geniuses, Russia will swallow the East whole. Yes, Fraulein, Germany is looking East. And East is saying, "Fuck help us, Russia will molest and swallow us whole if you don't fucking do something." Germany traditionally didn't have good dealings with Russia. Recall World War 1 and 2. Thanks for your insight and strategic consideration.

[Typhoon]

Europe continues to make a complete mess of the situation, it remains to be seen how it is going to get itself out of the problem with the Ukrainian economy imploding, who will pay to stabilize the situation? Ending the sanctions war and reconciliation with Russia should be a top priority but the damage is done.

The entire conflict between Russia and Europe was completely unnecessary, counterproductive and shows how easy it is for Europe to be led around by the nose against its own interests by an expansionist NATO and the imaginary threat of an aggressive expansionist Russia.

Meanwhile the Hong Kong crisis and the predictable Western response should underline the point that Russia was never going to be isolated internationally and that a close Russia/China combination is the only way forward for both of these nations. I think the Chinese now understand this point very well.

[Frollein]

Your sources are all crappy and shitty third rate online newspapers. Not much of a source to be honest. And you have been wrong before. Like the time you claimed Russia was bringing humanitarian aid to Ukraine, when they clearly (now totally proven) were bringing Russian weapons and supplies to the terrorists.

Not to start that discussion again, but the very specific convoy I had been referring to wasn't carrying tanks as you claimed then, it was actually bringing food, water, generators, etc. Please provide evidence to the contrary.

Yeah it's fucking shit that Germany had to play the sanctions game with Russia. However, better curb Russia now with sanctions then have a full blown war when Russia starts pushing forward to reclaim East Berlin.

Hysterical much?

I have met a shitload of German Russia-apologists lately in real life. I have never met a lot that's more short sighted than the German Russia-apologists. They have no fucking idea about the reality on the ground and seriously are believing that Russia is the victim.

The only victim so far is the German economy. You can't quote me anywhere pitying Russia as a victim of anything. I'm talking of German self-interest. How is America setting up camp on Ukrainian gas reservoirs in our interest again?

Germany traditionally didn't have good dealings with Russia. Recall World War 1 and 2.

Perhaps you should try some history books that go back farther than 1914? Russo-German relationships had their ups and downs just like any other political relationship between nations throughout history, because they are dictated by the nations' respective interests. Right now I can't see how cutting ourselves off from the resources and markets in the east is beneficial to German interests, especially when considering the poisoned gift of TTIP that America has to offer, not to mention the various hotspots that are the result of American expansionism, which are now coming to our towns, as Jesides, Kurds and Salafists are fighting in the Streets of Celle, Hamburg, Munich. But of course, Russia is about to swallow Berlin tomorrow, that should be our top priority

[Euroman]

Your entire source of evidence was one pathetic article. I gave you 4, including yours, contradicting your claim. It makes absolute and perfect sense to say you are utterly wrong.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heavy-rus ... 10441.html
http://online.wsj.com/articles/aid-conv ... 1407917651
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/23/world ... ne-crisis/
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/russi ... voy-2014-8


Apparently those humanitarian trucks were carrying anti-air batteries. Thanks to German apologists like you, Russia is able to get away with things like shooting the MH17 from the sky.


And yes, you are being terribly shortsighted about punishing Russia. Yeah, short term pain now. It fucking sucks. However, do you have any strategic long term plans? What do you want the Russians to do? See inaction on our side and then invade all of Ukraine? Which country is next after Ukraine? It's in Germany's best interest to cut down Russia early, because they will take away ALL German business interest in Eastern Europe if you give them the opportunity to.

[Typhoon]

I don't know why your criticizing Frollein for using only one source, the pictures which make up your evidence are recycled throughout the four articles you provide.

The images identify parts of an SA-19 battery accompanied with an SA-22 which are not humanitarian. However all of the images were taken in Russia and there is no evidence presented that these vehicles are associated with the humanitarian convoy or that they entered Ukraine.

The Russians do not need the excuse of a humanitarian convoy in association with the red cross to ship in arms as they could do so with impunity at any time, as was shown by the massive assistance provided at the end of August which forced Ukraine into a ceasefire under unfavorable terms.

[Ideational Ontarian]

Ukrainian military recruiting ad.

[youtube]yYX7KVEtfLo[/youtube]

Showing actual combat is interesting. That's not something I've ever seen in a Canadian Forces ad. Then again, we are not fighting an invasion of Russians on our own territory...

[Typhoon]

The Ukrainian armed forces are not the only ones building an image, look who has a brand spanking new personal website!

http://www.igorstrelkov.ru/

[annatar1914]

Ukrainian military recruiting ad.

[youtube]yYX7KVEtfLo[/youtube]

Showing actual combat is interesting. That's not something I've ever seen in a Canadian Forces ad. Then again, we are not fighting an invasion of Russians on our own territory...

Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the Heroes! Glory to the sons and daughters of the Sich and Kievyan Rus and Scythia and the Right Believing Soldiers in Christ!

[pikachu]

Ukraine Eurobonds plunge as markets sense restructuring pain

LONDON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Ukraine's dollar bonds suffered a sharp selloff on Tuesday, plunging to multi-month lows as investors priced in the growing probability of debt restructuring and lower recovery rates for bondholders.

While Kiev's ceasefire with pro-Russian militants in the country's east is holding, its finances are looking increasingly untenable, with the economy set to shrink 8-9 percent in 2014 and the currency having lost about 40 percent so far this year.

Debt insurance costs have also surged in recent days. Five-year credit default swaps (CDS) quoted by Markit are at 1,230 basis points, implying a 58 percent default probability over the period. As recently as the end of August, CDS were below 1,000.

Investors are betting on even higher short-term default risk. One-year CDS are over 1,600 bps although David Spegel, head of emerging debt strategy at BNP Paribas, reckons they should be closer to 3,000 bps given the size of the risks.

Signs that tensions between Ukraine and Russia are receding could make a restructuring more likely, Spegal said.

"The more likely a sustained peace can be achieved, the more it brings forward debt restructuring expectations. The probability of restructuring has definitely been brought forward in recent days - bad news for the bonds," he added.

Ukraine's outstanding sovereign Eurobonds amount to around $16 billion, Spegel says, or 22 percent of total debt. A large chunk of those is held by U.S. fund giant Franklin Templeton.

Ukraine's $2.2 billion bond due 2022 was worst hit on Tuesday, falling 1.2 cents to trade at 83.7 cents in the dollar . The $1.2 billion 2023 bond fell a similar amount to 81.3 cents, the lowest since early May and down around 8 cents since end-August.

The 2017 equivalent fell to 86 cents and even state energy firm Naftogaz's $1.6 billion bond maturing next week fell 0.750 cent to around 97.8 cents, despite a widely held view Kiev will repay the bond.

"The really difficult economic reality of Ukraine is now setting in with investors," said Standard Bank analyst Tim Ash, noting annual industrial output had shrunk a fifth last month.

Ash noted that despite a $17 billion loan programme from the International Monetary Fund and additional aid pledges from other Western lenders, debt ratios were steadily mounting.

"With official financing building up on the sovereign balance sheet, it suggests that any 'haircut' if applied on private sector creditors would now need to be pretty aggressive to make a difference," Ash added.

A haircut refers to how much investors lose on their original investment in the case of a restructuring.

BAD HAIRCUT

Analysts say public debt ratios in fact may already have crossed the key 60 percent threshold that allows Russia to demand repayment of the $3 billion it lent last year. That debt is structured as Eurobonds, which means Russia would wield huge clout at the creditor table if restructuring happens.

It has already started choking off the gas on which Ukraine relies for energy, and winter is on its way.

Ukrainian bond prices currently imply a roughly 20 percent 'haircut' across the curve but analysts see that as optimistic.

Spegel calculates that holders of short-dated issues, such as the 2017 bond, can expect to receive 75 cents in the dollar but that recovery rates on longer-dated bonds will be closer to 55 cents if Ukraine's debt levels are to become sustainable.

And that is not taking into account the loss of income from Crimea, the region annexed by Russia earlier this year or even the pro-independence eastern provinces to whom Kiev has offered "special status".

"I am not sure the bond prices reflect reality, the long-end is hugely over-valued. In fact, if you remove (eastern areas around) Donetsk and Lugansk from the equation you could be looking at even lower recovery rates," Spegel added. (Reporting by Sujata Rao; Editing by Catherine Evans)

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuter ... z3GYNWa6Yf

And also:

Ukraine’s economic situation remains grim given Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s faithful toeing of the International Monetary Fund’s austerity measures. One look at the credit default swaps market — which measures debt risk — and one can see that speculators are pricing a 69% likelihood of default over the next few years. This might not happen, but the risk means higher lending costs for Ukraine, which needs as much money as it can get. Financing growth will be painful, especially in dollar or euro-denominated debt. The Russians surely are’t going to come running to save them. Since president Viktor Yanukovych’s ouster on February 22, the Ukrainian currency has fallen nearly 60% against the dollar. Yatsenyuk said that 30% would be okay. He got double his base case scenario.

“Yes, to some extent there are grounds for concern. But we are not alone. All investment banks around the world are worried,” said Olga Podoinitsyna, member of the board at VTB Capital.

“If the West wanted the Ukraine to join the E.U. as a stable and prosperous member, it would have put an economic growth policy in place, not this austerian mess,” said Signorelli. “It’s impossible to imagine how we would have won the Cold War if these policies were heaped on West Germany following WWII.”

The economic demise of Ukraine will almost certainly lead to continued, political fracturing of the country. And that means more civil unrest in the east. So long as the West is convinced that Russia is fighting a proxy war by aiding the anti-Kiev rebels, more sanctions are coming.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2 ... ing-banks/

The last bolded sentence, I believe, sums up this whole nasty conflict. The actual victory for the EU in this conflict is most likely not what it presents as its official goal.

[Drlee]

I thought this was over. I have not seen a thing about it on the US news for nearly a month. Catch me up in 25 words or less.

[Dagoth Ur]

The fact that US news doesn't report on news outside of the official narrative doesn't mean these things they ignore are over.

[Solastalgia]

I thought this was over. I have not seen a thing about it on the US news for nearly a month. Catch me up in 25 words or less.

After a couple days of peace talks (including Putin and Merkel) in Milan, not much has changed, as there's still some fire fights and shelling in Donetsk. At the talks they confirmed Russian gas will continue through Ukraine, as well as an agreement on Russia deploying drones to monitor the "truce." This was also Putin's first bilateral negotiations with Poroshenko.

[jessupjonesjnr87]

Catch me up in 25 words or less.

Kiev lost.

[Frollein]

“If the West wanted the Ukraine to join the E.U. as a stable and prosperous member, it would have put an economic growth policy in place, not this austerian mess,” said Signorelli. “It’s impossible to imagine how we would have won the Cold War if these policies were heaped on West Germany following WWII.”

Ukraine wasn't a stable and prosperous state to begin with, and I doubt that it was what the EU had in mind for them. And it's ridiculous to compare Ukraine with Germany - it's not the amount of money you throw around, but how it's spent. Case in point: Britain received $2.7 billion in Marshall Plan Aid, Germany $1.7 billion (the rest is history).

[Atlantis]

A detailed analysis presented by the German intelligence agency BND to a parliamentary sub-committee shows that flight MH17 was downed by the separatists with a Buk system captured from a Ukrainian military base.

The BND presentation also claims that both Russia and Ukraine published forged documents to prove that the other side had downed the plane.

[pikachu]

I am inclined to believe that this is actually the case as it is by far the most likely possibility, but apparently in today's world it is politically preferable to respond with denials and conspiracy theories, rather than admit responsibility for an accident.

[Typhoon]

Does anyone have access to the report or is it only a second hand account or minutes from the meeting?

[Solastalgia]

Does anyone have access to the report or is it only a second hand account or minutes from the meeting?

Nope. Just the BND president (Gerhard Schindler) public statements.

[Oxymoron]

I hoped the Russians would be able to liberate Odessa so I can stop telling people I was born in the loser Ukraine