Glen wrote:I could not find a link for raw data. I was referring to a possible trend from 2013 when the Calais jungle formed?
Data can be found on the
True Vision website, although this is not monthly data.
Pdfs (recorded hate crimes per year):
Recorded Hate Crime Data for 2014/15 for England, Wales and Northern IrelandRecorded Hate Crime Data for 2013/14 for England, Wales and Northern IrelandRecorded Hate Crime Data for 2012/13 for England, Wales and Northern IrelandRecorded Hate Crime Data for 2011 for England, Wales and Northern IrelandNote recording has changed from calendar year to financial year after 2011. There are some caveats mentioned in these reports re comparing numbers year on year.
In summary:
2010: 48,127
2011: 44,361 (-8%)
2012/2013: 41204 (-7%)
2013/2014: 42434 (+3%)
2014/2015: 52371 (+23%)
Regarding the increase in 2014/2015 (note the article only refers to England/Wales data - NI is excluded):
True Vision wrote:The Home Office said "likely factors" in the increase included improved recording of crime, a greater awareness of hate crime and an improved willingness of victims to come forward.
[...]
Police can only record what they know about, so to truly understand hate crime you have to also look at the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) - the internationally respected rolling programme of interviews with ordinary people.
The CSEW is not without its statistical limitations, but it casts its net far wider than the police and it reports that hate crime has fallen by 28% over the last seven years.
So while the prime minister has tweeted that rising hate crime is unacceptable, it's almost certain that police figures are up because more people are reporting it.
In other words, it is very difficult to argue that we are becoming a nastier nation when the evidence indicates we're becoming increasingly intolerant of hate crime.
To get an idea of monthly variation here is a graph taken from
National Hate Crime Data for 2014/15 for England and Wales (page 11).
I think this may be the basis for their statement that certain incidents lead to spikes in hate crime. I'm not so sure how convinced I am by what seems to be an attribution to the run up to the Gaza/Israel conflict, but at any rate it seems unsound to attribute all of any one increase to a single event.
True Vision also records the number of online reports on its website and it has also seen an increase in reporting year on year:
2012/2013: 2957
2013/2014: 3641 (+23%)
2014/2015: 4169 (+15%)
2015/2016: 4764 (+14%)
So overall, the 20% increase compared to the previous period mentioned by the NPCC isn't particularly informative. If we accept that increased awareness has led to an increase in reporting, then we should be careful in attributing all of the increase to the referendum. If we also accept that certain incidents cause an increase in this type of crime, then we also need to consider that there have been several high profile terrorist attacks since the referendum and factor this in.
As a final note, I'm doing here what journalists actually should be doing and are paid for. I'm especially looking at the BBC, publicly financed and mandated to inform/educate.
Edit: Also would this count as racist hysteria today? BBC: Pakistani Daleks
[youtube]C0n88tZQc4Q[/youtube]