[Igor Antunov]

The army of southern Sudan signed a ceasefire with a renegade general's fighters on Wednesday, easing one potential source of instability days before the region votes in a referendum on its independence.

George Athor, a former senior officer in southern Sudan's army, was the last major guerrilla leader fighting against the authorities who control what could become Africa's newest independent country.

Athor, believed to be holed up in remote Jonglei state, sent a delegation which signed the truce late on Wednesday in a hotel in regional capital Juba. His forces had killed scores of troops since he rebelled against the south's government, after accusing officials of perpetrating fraud in elections in April.

"We are very grateful to George Athor for his tireless efforts to make this ceasefire a success," said officer Michael Majur, speaking on behalf of the southern army, the SPLA. "I would like to thank him wherever he his."

Voting begins on Jan. 9 in the referendum on independence for Sudan's south, the culmination of a peace process that began in 2005 and ended Africa's longest civil war.

The oil-producing but poor south has seen insecurity from tribal clashes, unruly soldiers and anti-government militias, feeding fears it may struggle to go it alone.

Athor's delegation said the truce proved the south could survive independence and not threaten regional security.

http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews ... 6920110105

Could have our newest country this year. I suspect it would end up being a cosmetic change, this region is oil rich and it would not squander any current or pending investments. Thus the situation on the ground would not really change. Perhaps greater stability through peace would usher in economic development thanks to these oil reserves, or as is typical of africa, the great corruption inherent would usher in a host of very rich individuals milking the country dry as they do.

Here is the topic in more detail: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_S ... ndum,_2011

Being resource rich and poor, large and sparsely populated and also utterly factionalized, I suspect the north along with ethiopia and surrounding states could make a landgrab for those oil producing regions. Theres also the possibility of darfur and other regions of sudan trying to follow suit if independence is declared, leading to a renewed civil war within sudan.

[Okonkwo]

the great corruption inherent would usher in a host of very rich individuals milking the country dry as they do.

I am afraid that that's precisely what's going to happen. As soon as the Southern Sudanese lose their common objective the different tribes will start threatening each other. The future president of South Sudan is Salva Kiir, a Dinka, his vice-president will be Riek Machar, a Nuer. Both have in the past steered an opportunist course and tried to secure the interests of their own people instead of pledging support for the new state.
I am deeply suspicious of the South Sudanese leadership, I do believe they are neither fit nor ready for the job. It's likely that their infighting will scare off any potential investors and stop the economy from becoming anything else than an oil-fuelled private fund for the ruling politicians. It's a shame really.

[Bosnjak]

Kosovo opened the box of pandora. Now can any region demand independence.

[Igor Antunov]

So what happened to this? Nothing on the news about it. What came of the elections?

[Prosthetic Conscience]

Voting finishes Saturday:

# Voting: 9-15 January
# To pass, there must be a 60% turnout, plus a straightforward majority in favour
# Vote is a condition of the 2005 deal to end the two-decade north-south conflict
# Most northerners are Arabic-speaking Muslims
# Most southerners are Christian or follow traditional religions
# Oil-rich Abyei area to hold separate vote on whether to join north or south
# Referendum could divide Africa's largest country
# Final result due 6 February or 14 February if there are appeals
# South would become continent's newest nation on 9 July 2011
# National anthem and flag chosen, but not new country's name

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12170235

[Igor Antunov]

Ok good.

I think they should call it 'Another failed state-iland'.

[Rei Murasame]

Well, I have to admire the fact that they are really trying to make this happen.

It would probably be nice if someone thoughtful could park some very muscular UN Peacekeepers (like, in reality, and not just on paper) in the South of Sudan to make themselves useful in anticipation of this imminent partition, just in case the people in the North decide tomorrow that their god changed its mind and "wants war upon supposed 'infidels and polytheists' after all".

You know they will!

[J Oswald]

The South Sudanese referendum will most likely produce an independent state, but, as has been said before, it will be another shining example of failure. The only thing holding together South Sudan is a mutual hatred of the Northern government, and once that's gone, such superficial unity will disappear.