[Kaspar]

Grinding to a halt
Mar 9th 2011, 19:10 by D.G. | ABIDJAN

THE post-electoral upsurge in violence in Côte d’Ivoire has ruined the former French colony’s tourist trade. Already the Ibis, one of the four big hotels in Abidjan, the business and administrative capital, has been forced to close on account of a dearth of bookings. Another, the Novotel, is considering doing so after laying off half its staff. Those remaining are working part-time. A third has guests in only three of its rooms. But the 300-room Hotel du Golf on the palm-fringed Ebrié lagoon, a five-minute helicopter hop from the city centre, boasts the highest occupancy rate in west Africa—a steady 100% for the past three months. For it has become the redoubt of Alassane Ouattara, the UN-certified winner of November’s presidential election, which Laurent Gbagbo continues to contest, insisting that he is still the president.

It is here that Mr Ouattara, his ministers and other staff are holed up, protected by some 800 UN blue-helmets. UN helicopters, which keep the hotel stocked with food and other supplies, are now the only way in and out of the hotel. All the access roads have been blocked by Gbagbo loyalists. It is a suffocating existence, but today everyone is happy. They believe the end to the crisis may be in sight. Mr Ouattara and Mr Gbagbo have been "invited" (read "summoned") to the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa on Thursday (March 10th) by the African Union’s Peace and Security Council. Mr Ouattara has already left. His aides claim to have it on good authority that the AU will formally proclaim him president and demand that Mr Gbagbo go—or else.

Or else what? No one is willing to say, or even knows. Given that Mr Gbagbo has so far refused calls by the UN and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to step down, he seems unlikely to do so now. He has refused to go to Addis Ababa. (As I write, a volley of gun-fire rings out from across the lagoon, near Abidjan’s cultural centre, opposite my hotel—a reminder that all is not as peaceful as it sometimes seems, even in Abidjan’s business and financial centre.) Mr Ouattara’s aides claim that "more than 75%" of the army, supposedly still under Mr Gbagbo’s control, have "defected" (presumably mentally, rather than actually physically) and that it is just a question of time before the Forces Nouvelles (FN), the former rebel forces now backing Mr Ouattara, descend from their stronghold in the mainly Muslim north and take Abidjan. Several towns in the west of the country, traditionally loyal to Mr Gbagbo, have already fallen in fierce fighting between government forces and the FN over the past few days.

Ivorians dispute whether the country is heading for a civil war or is already in the midst of one. The question may soon become academic if the "cash crunch" advances as rapidly as it seems to be doing. Mr Gbagbo’s parallel "government" is already virtually bankrupt. Most of its funds are blocked in the central bank of the eight Central African Franc countries in Dakar, the Senegalese capital, which has cut off all relations with the Côte d’Ivoire. All the foreign banks in the country have likewise closed down their operations, stopping the funds of both the government and private individuals. It is no longer possible to make payments by cheque, bank transfer or credit card. Côte d’Ivoire become a cash-only economy and sooner or later that cash will run out.

On Monday, thousands of civil servants could be seen queuing under the hot sun at branches of the two state-owned banks that remain open, hoping to lay their hands on their February salaries, as Mr Gbagbo had promised. His government’s official newspaper proclaimed proudly yesterday that 62% of the state’s 100,000-plus employees had been able to do so. But what about the other 38%? How are they going to live? And what about this month’s salaries? Who is going to pay them? Mr Gbagbo announced yesterday that he had "nationalised" the cocoa and coffee industries, the mainstays of the country’s economy. It is an act of bravado, designed to calm the "ignorant masses", as snooty Ivorians refer to them. EU and US sanctions mean that European countries and America will not buy the stuff themselves nor are EU- or American-registered vessels allowed to carry it.

Mr Ouattara’s call to his fellow citizens to starve Mr Gbagbo’s government of funds by refusing to pay their taxes has become redundant. No one has the wherewithal to pay even if they wanted to. People are having shell out for their electricity and water in hard cash. Employers are unable to play their suppliers or their employees. Chemists and hospitals are beginning to run out of drugs for want of ready cash. The country’s oil refinery has come to a virtual halt because sanctions are preventing crude from coming in. Most of the schools and universities are closed. For the moment, the open-air markets are full, but those too will be forced to close once the flow of cash dries up. Côte d’Ivoire is grinding to a halt as the two political protagonists, both with almost identical programmes, continue to slug it out.

It seems almost obscene, this battle for personal power, as hundreds die, with perhaps many more hundreds of deaths to come. Yet the principle is important. Too often in Africa, the incumbent Big Man has been allowed to cling on to power after being defeated in reasonably fair democratic elections. As Kofi Annan, a Ghanaian former UN secretary general said last month, if Mr Gbagbo is allowed to prevail, "elections as an instrument of peaceful political change in Africa will suffer a serious setback."

- The Economist

A somewhat old article, but the situation hasn't improved a whole lot. A very interesting read in my opinion. Also, for those who are interested it seems like the "rebels", or pro-Ouattara forces, are making major advances in the north of the country. Recently the UN said that 1,000,000 Ivorians have fled the country. Dialogue between the two contenders has mostly failed. At this point I'm beginning to worry that the country is heading towards another civil war.

[Okonkwo]

it seems like the "rebels", or pro-Ouattara forces, are making major advances in the north of the country.

I do think it has to be mentioned though that the pro-Ouattara forces, namely the former rebel group "Forces Nouvelles" have retained power in the north since the civil war 9 years ago that already included an attempt to remove Gbagbo from power.
So the situation in the north has always been somewhat different from that in southern Côte d'Ivoire.

What irks me most about this conflict is that there is virtually no difference between the two candidates. "Democracy" and a more or less personal rivalry between two politicians is bringing this country dangerously close to civil war with the economy in shatters.
Regardless of who comes out victorious, there will be no actual improvement for the Ivorians, even a return to the status quo ante would count as an achievement. That's anything but progress.

[J Oswald]

It's examples like this that make me thing democracy cannot work in most sub-Saharan African countries under their current conditions. There is too much instability, too much of an incentive to treat the country like a personal ATM, and no incentive whatsoever for a national leader to try and improve his country. Looking at sub-Saharan Africa, the only countries with functioning democracies are those where either a single party has dominant control over the legislative process (i.e. South Africa and Botswana), or one where there are either few or no tribal conflicts.

[Wills]

Very worrying...

I think UN troops are going to be much too thinly spread, lots of countries seem to be revolting at once. Egypt's protests seem very civilised compares to some of the more recent, Mubarak looks good in comparison.

[Brio]

Ivory Coast: Laurent Gbagbo 'running out of troops'
Besieged Ivory Coast leader Laurent Gbagbo has fewer than 1,000 troops left in the main city of Abidjan, French Defence Minister Gerard Longuet says.

He estimates 200 of these fighters are at the presidential residence, where the strongman refuses to stand down.

Mr Gbagbo is encircled by forces loyal to rival Alassane Ouattara, who is thought to have several thousand men.

A BBC correspondent in Abidjan says a fresh attack is expected at any moment on the presidential compound.

A so-called final assault on the building on Wednesday by pro-Ouattara forces was fought off by Gbagbo loyalists.

'Israeli rescue plea'

Heavy weapon and machine-gun fire was heard earlier on Thursday in the city, which was rocked overnight by explosions.

Mr Gbagbo's top generals have deserted him but his diehard supporters fight on in several districts, says the BBC's Andrew Harding in Abidjan.

The French defence minister was quoted by AFP news agency as saying: "Today, at the moment, former President Gbagbo's forces are reportedly a bit less than 1,000, including 200 at his residence."

Reuters news agency reports that Mr Longuet also told the Senate in Paris on Thursday that French helicopters had destroyed two pick-up trucks of gunmen trying to break into the French ambassador's residence.

Meanwhile, Israel has now asked Paris to extract Israeli diplomats from Abidjan, according to French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe.

On Wednesday evening, French helicopters rescued the Japanese ambassador from the city's diplomatic quarter.

Soldiers exchanged fire with Gbagbo fighters as they whisked Okamura Yoshifumi and his aides to a French military camp south of Abidjan.

Mr Okamura said unidentified gunmen had occupied his home near the presidential residence, firing heavy weapons from the building.

France has had troops in Ivory Coast alongside UN peacekeepers since the country's civil war broke out almost a decade ago.

Mr Gbagbo insists he won a run-off vote in November, but the Ivorian election commission found he lost - and the UN certified that result.

The ballot had been intended to reunite the former French colony, which split in two following a northern rebellion in 2002.

'Capture him alive'

After months of stalling negotiations, forces loyal to Mr Gbagbo's rival last week swept south to Abidjan.

Mr Gbagbo says his rival's troops want to kill him, but they say they have strict orders to capture him alive.

Cisse Sindou, a spokesman of the pro-Ouattara forces, told BBC Afrique this was one reason why Mr Gbagbo had not yet been seized:

"We could have reduced everything within 500m of the presidential place to dust but people live there...

"We want to capture Gbagbo alive without killing all his neighbours."

On Monday, French and UN attack helicopters bombarded Gbagbo arms sites in Abidjan, including inside the presidential compound.

Pro-Gbagbo forces had been accused of firing heavy weaponry at UN peacekeepers and into areas of the city that voted for his opponent.

The battle for Abidjan has now been raging for a week and it is unsafe for many of the city's several million people to go outside.

The main banks have been closed for nearly two months and few people have the funds to stock up on food.

The International Criminal Court says it will investigate alleged human rights abuses by both sides during the fighting, which has left hundreds dead.

Source

Just an update on the crisis. For those that are more informed of the situation do you think the conflict will be over soon as this article speculates?

P.S. sorry for the unsightly formatting; I was in a rush.