[GandalfTheGrey]

July 20 1944 - Bomb goes off, Hitler survives. Scenario is exactly how it really happened - right up until the time Stauffenberg successfully escaped the Wolf's Lair and is already on the flight to Berlin.

This is the situation - Hitler is alive but it will be about 6 hours before he and anyone else caught up in the explosion can communicate with Berlin.

Is there anything the conspirators could have done in this time to successfully implement operation Valkyrie and overthrow the Nazi regime?

Key points:

- General Fromm - commander of the Reserve army was a key figure. What if he had immediately got on board?
- Gemeral Fellgiebel - the conspirators contact at the Wolf's Lair cut off communications into and out of the wolf's Lair after the bomb went off - but crucially re-established communication to inform Olbrecht that Hitler was alive
- In the end, the Reserve army turned on the conspirators after the Berlin commander personally spoke to Hitler - yet the Reserve had several crucial hours before this to secure Berlin and arrest key figures such as Goebbels

Of course the biggest obstacle for the conspirators was that any troops they had available to them all swore allegiance to Hitler above anyone else. The reserve could have secured Berlin for the conspirators, but only if the reserve was kept in the dark about Hitler's fate. Yet in this crucial period they could possibly have gained control of all communication channels, kept the truth suppressed from the right people long enough to consolidate power. The question is, could the conspirators have swept to power and established control to such an extent to create a "tipping point" - whereby even when confirmation of Hitler's survival finally got out, they were now acknowledged as the "legitimate" government and all armed forces owed allegiance to them and no longer Hitler?

[Nattering Nabob]

Nah...Hitler was a God to those people...had he showed up a year later they would still have followed him...

The plotters would have had to kill Hitler after the fact (while keeping his survival a complete secret) and made it seem that he had died in the bombing...

[GandalfTheGrey]

Nah...Hitler was a God to those people

A topic of historical debate. Fear of the police state vs genuine adoration of the man. Certainly by 1944 they had less reason to love him.

But one group of people Hitler never completely won over was the Prussian officer class - and it was these people that were predominantly behind the coup. The question for me is how committed would the conservative Prussian aristocracy - who formed the officer class of the wehrmacht - be to overthrowing the nazis once they saw a meaningful attempt being carried out. The most difficult step is always the first step. We know that prominent commanders such as Rommel and von Kluge were at least sympathetic with the conspirators, while others such as Runstedt and Fromm showed ambivalence - indicating that they were sitting on the fence and waiting to see who would be the "winning side". It is conceivable to imagine that a swift and decisive takeover of Berlin would prompt a widescale revolt by the regular army. And if the momentum was strong enough, perhaps releasing a groundswell of penned up resentment related to the hopeless military position Germany was in amongst rank and file soldiers and civilians alike - then possibly it would be strong enough to reject Hitler even after he re-emerged alive. Certainly a bitter civil war between the Wehrmacht and the SS would be on the cards.

[Nattering Nabob]

But one group of people Hitler never completely won over was the Prussian officer class - and it was these people that were predominantly behind the coup. The question for me is how committed would the conservative Prussian aristocracy - who formed the officer class of the wehrmacht - be to overthrowing the nazis once they saw a meaningful attempt being carried out.

I read an account of a French bureaucrat who refused to give fuel to a French tank commander while the Nazis were rolling through France because the tank commander did not have the proper requsition papers.

It may sound silly to us in these modern days...but people back then were very big on following rules and regulations even though the gates to the city were falling and the Germans were the Crown Princes of anal retention...

You are of course correct that many of the old school officer class detested Hitler and some actively plotted against him but I believe that the overwhelming majority would have followed him simply because he was already the established leader.

[GandalfTheGrey]

I believe that the overwhelming majority would have followed him simply because he was already the established leader.

We'll never really know how the wehrmacht would have acted on the whole, but we do know that there were a surprising number of officers who knew about the plot and chose not to betray them. That suggests to me that perhaps they were at least amenable to the idea of "jumping ship" if something happened. Also in regards to following the "established leader" - for this officer class, their notion of the "establishment", and where their deepest loyalties lay was with a conservative and aristocratic German Reich - "Fatherland" that far preceded the Hitler years. They went along with Hitler because for a time he fulfilled their desires of expansion in the east and suppression of socialism (even Stauffenburg supported the colonization of Poland). Hitler obviously went way too far - but of course by then they were literally powerless to intervene given the virtually impenetrable internal security apparatus of the Nazi state. You have to appreciate that by July 1944, these aristocrats knew 100% that Germany was going to lose the war and that pretty soon their position, their estates, their glory, their entire existence would be overrun by inferior Russians. You need to weigh this reality that faced them against any tendency they had to be "yes men" to the leader of the day. And like I said, taking the first step is always the hardest and the most critical. Its all well and good to be a "yes man" when nothing is happening, but when someone takes that first step for you, it becomes something different entirely.

[Rojik of the Arctic]

The most difficult step is always the first step. We know that prominent commanders such as Rommel and von Kluge were at least sympathetic with the conspirators, while others such as Runstedt and Fromm showed ambivalence - indicating that they were sitting on the fence and waiting to see who would be the "winning side".

It's pretty much how I see it, as well as the vacillation of those involved when the crucial moment hit. The SS and Gestapo leaders needed to be rounded up, and probably shot, as soon as the bomb went off but key players wanted conformation of the death of Hitler before they acted, and by that time it was too late. In as much as the country had many fanatical Nazi's there was also a ground swell of resentment at the situation Hitler and co had put the country in. It wasn't uncommon to see HJ boys cleaning graffiti off the buildings first thing in the morning. Slogans like "One People, One Leader, One Pile of Rubble" and "How many millions must die for the mad dream of Adolf Hitler" just to name a couple. Whether the army would have been able to coordinate itself to a complete overthrow is debatable but it was never possible as long as the main players were waiting for things to happen while Himmler and Goebbels acted.

[Oxymoron]

How about having a Bomb with some Shrappnel if you are trying to kill a person not blow up a building.

[R_G]

Hitler had to die.

He did not.

It's amazing how some of the worst men in history avoided such near death so many times.

[Thunderhawk]

How about having a Bomb with some Shrappnel if you are trying to kill a person not blow up a building.

How about some fucking commitment to the cause?
Place the case-bomb on the table, say something poetic and then detonate.

The conspirators werent willing to die to ensure success, but they expected Hitler's death and a coup to be enough to change the war and the policies/negotiations of hostile forces? At best they were optimist, at worse they were as dillusional as Hitler.

[GandalfTheGrey]

Whether the army would have been able to coordinate itself to a complete overthrow is debatable but it was never possible as long as the main players were waiting for things to happen while Himmler and Goebbels acted.

I guess the problem with these sort of conservatives plotting a coup is that they will always want to be certain that not just the assasination succeeds, but perhaps more importantly, the subsequent seizure of power succeeds as well. The danger with this is that the only plot they would be prepared to execute is a plot that not only entails significant delays, but it might well end up being unrealistic or impractical. Thus it is true, for example, that several plans were cancelled at the last minute because the conspirators couldn't kill Hitler and Himmler at the same time - the fear being that in the event of Hitler's death, Himmler would merely take over. Had they decided to just kill Hitler and to hell with the aftermath, then they probably would have succeeded.

How about having a Bomb with some Shrappnel if you are trying to kill a person not blow up a building.

The bomb was perfectly suitable for its intended location - which was a concrete bunker. Everyone would have died had it gone off in there - guaranteed. Unfortunately the meeting was moved at the last minute to a less air tight and windowed barracks. Obviously Stauffenburg couldn't have changed the bomb with such short notice. Besides, recent analysis has indicated that had the bag not been moved, it almost certainly would have killed Hitler.

The conspirators werent willing to die to ensure success, but they expected Hitler's death and a coup to be enough to change the war and the policies/negotiations of hostile forces? At best they were optimist, at worse they were as dillusional as Hitler.

There actually was a "suicide bomb" attempt when Hitler was touring France at some point. The bomber was to kill Hitler while he was taking him on a tour of a museum. He set it for 10 minutes - unfortunately Hitler raced through the tour in less than 10 minutes.

The problem with the July 20 plot was that Stauffenburg was designated as the one to carry out the bombing as well as to carry out Valkyrie in Berlin.

[Oxymoron]

The bomb was perfectly suitable for its intended location - which was a concrete bunker. Everyone would have died had it gone off in there - guaranteed. Unfortunately the meeting was moved at the last minute to a less air tight and windowed barracks. Obviously Stauffenburg couldn't have changed the bomb with such short notice. Besides, recent analysis has indicated that had the bag not been moved, it almost certainly would have killed Hitler.

Again, adding some sharpnel wouldnt have made the bomb any less effective. Just put some fucking nuts and bolts in the fucking bag. Is that so difficult for Germans to consider?

[Thunderhawk]

Bags were checked. I dont remember why the explosive and timed detonator passed, but they did. Having a bunch of bolts and nuts in there would look and sound odd.
Furthermore, if nuts and bolts could be within and not raise eyebrows, then why not a gun and pull it out once in the meeting and shoot Hitler?

If the conspirators didnt even have a simple back up plan (which they apparantly didnt, as they postponed and postponed the attempt) then how could they have taken Berlin and dealt with their Nazi opponants?