[Manuel]

What do you think would have happened if Japan had won the battle of Midway? Would they have gone up to Alaska and Hawaii, taken them, and then moved to California?

Or stop there, and hope the US begs for peace?

I ask becuase I have a school thing to do, and I'd like to see some opinions that arn't my own on the matter.

[Thoss]

Would they have gone up to Alaska and Hawaii, taken them, and then moved to California?

This was never part of the war aims of the Japanese, that is, annexation of US territories through hostile means.

Had the Japanese been victorious at midway, however, I think a second follow up strike at Hawaii would have followed with the hope that the Americans would sue for peace. That said, even with a victory at midway, I doubt the Japanese would have had the capacity to strike at the American mainland in such a way that would convince Americans to go to the negiotating table. After Pearl Harbour most Americans were committed to total war.

The Japanese, as I said were not looking to competely remove American posssions in the pacific and the continental west coast. They were looking to remove American power projection and make themselves the hegemonic power in the Pacific - a task suited to a series of quick demoralizing victories. Unfortuntely for them, this belief and strategy was flawed.

I must admit though, my knowledge on Japanese thought during the early part of the war is limited. Mr. Bill probably will have a better idea.

[Thunderhawk]

The battle of midway was largely an army smashing manouver. There were troop transports, but token forces compared to the forces (let alone militia) on Hawai'i. The Japanese went there to hurt the USA military and damage their infrastructure, they didnt bring enough ground troops to take Hawai'i.

Had the USA navy there been annhilated it would have been better for the Japanese to push the advantage elsewhere, likely preying on USA shipping in the area in an attempt to starve off USA and their allied units in the Pacific. Had they won and massacred the USA air forces while only damaging and forcing the Americans to limp and flee, taking Hawai'i might have been worth it. With the USA airforce wiped out and the US Navy largely intact though damaged and unfit for combat the Japanese could pursue the US fleet and risk fragmentation of their power and ambush, or consolidate. In that situation taking Hawai'i would probably be the best option, though not a great one. They would need to radio for more troops, and probably send some of their fleet back to escort an occupation convoy, hoping their reinforcement and troops would arrive before USA forces would. All the while strafing US forces and doing whatever damage they could and taking what cities they could with their limited means.

This, I think, would be almost ideal outcome and aftermath for Japan given hinesight.




Realistically, I suspect the Japanese would pursue some of the fleeing USA forces, concentrating on a few so that their power wasnt wholly fragmented. After that, they'd probably bomb/damage every part of Hawai'i worth bombing and then go South to start bashing Australia.

The Japanese never had an occupation plan to force their opponents to the negotiation table. Their plan was to pummle, demoralize and then sue for peace. They occupyied a few key pieces here and there, but all those where piece meal and small. Barring occupation (or massive military and industrial destruction), I dont see the USA or the Commonwealth accepting piece terms from Japan. As such, a Japanese victory at Hawai'i would likely lead to little actual gains other then a few more months of supremacy.

[Manuel]

Let's say Japan does win at Midway, and pushes ahead to take Hawaii and the Alutiean Islands. Would you say it is probable they would initiate bombing campaigns against the West Coast, again with this 'demoralize' strategy?

And If Japan did start taking American territories, what is the liklehood America would have withdrawn from key European theatre battles in order to combat the threat closer to home, resulting in Nazi superiority for a few precious months near the years 1944, 1945, allowing them to scrape along for a few more years, or outright start winning again?

[Ombrageux]

Japan had no interest in taking mainland US territories. All they wanted was a free hand to expand their empire in Asia at the cost of the Chinese, Dutch, Brits and French. At most, they would have taken Hawaii, and if they wanted anything more, they were well aware they did not have the means to significantly threaten the mainland.

[Thoss]

Let's say Japan does win at Midway, and pushes ahead to take Hawaii and the Alutiean Islands. Would you say it is probable they would initiate bombing campaigns against the West Coast, again with this 'demoralize' strategy?

Even if this did happan I think it would only reward the IJN a few months of supremacy in the pacific.

And If Japan did start taking American territories, what is the liklehood America would have withdrawn from key European theatre battles in order to combat the threat closer to home,

This strikes me as being not very plausible.

Lets assume Japan takes destroys the majority of the US carrier fleet (Yorktown, Hornet) at Midway and proceeds to take US territories. For a few months the mainland US would be vulnerable, but Japan did not have the capability to move on it. Thus, I suspect that the US would begin to transfer some naval units to the Pacific - but Army surge to Hawaii or the west coast would have been unecessary and unlikely.

First, despite the Japan hands around FDR, such as Admiral King, FDR was committed to the European theatre. Second, by late 1942 the US was committed to the peripheral strategy in Europe - that is Operation Torch and the mediterranian. A massive transfer of forces accross the world back to the US would have been costly and redundant. Third, I believe the US by early 1943 would have the naval resources to spare in the pacific, making transfers from the Atlantic unecessary.

resulting in Nazi superiority for a few precious months near the years 1944, 1945, allowing them to scrape along for a few more years, or outright start winning again?

This somewhat overestimates the western front and underestimates how deleterious the Russians were to the Germans. Nonetheless, I will agree that with a Midway victory you could have pushed some operations back slightly with resources going west rather than east for a time, but not to the extent that defeat of Germany is extended for years.

The Army build up in the Mediteranian and in England would have continued, and the Normandy operation would have gone forward, albeit at a later date perhaps. Ultimately I don't think things would have changed all that much. German troops in France and Italy are still tied down protecting their possessions, while Russian troops are moving through the East at the same rate. The situation would not change where it matters the most; The Russian Front.

[Manuel]

Back to Japan captures Hawaii? What oppurtunities would it have with the US tied down for a few months in China or against Australia? Without much American supplies, because of Japanese naval presence blocking the tranfer of most of them, would ti be plausible to expect the garrisons in New Guienea to fall, and the battle of Guadcanal to be lost, allowing Japan to attack mainland Australia, or do a heavy military push into China?

Furthermore, lets say Japan wins Midway, but rather than pushes further, uses to the time to dig down and reinforce captured positions in the Phillippines and other Pacific islands? What might this mean for the American campaign in the years afterwards? Is it plausible to assume victory over Japan would have occured a year or two later?

[Thunderhawk]

Well, I suppose it depends on what Japan does with Hawai'i. If they take the Islands and hold them with occupation forces and full military pressence, then I believe they could effectively hold the islands from militias/resistence. However, then what?

To keep the islands from falling back to a USA 'liberation' fleet, Japan would have to station a substantial amount of their own fleet in the region, aswell as aircraft. - Aircraft that would then be susceptible to sabotage. But mainly, holding Hawai'i would be a large resource sink that they would need for further conquest and securing in the South Pacific & China.

Alternatively, they pillage and burn the islands and then move on. Move on to what? Raiding the USA West Coast would cost a HUGE amount of fuel and TIME. Unless they can resupply in South America I dont see what they could really do to the USA. Destroy Panama, bomb San Francisco and LA ? To what end? They would have a limited supply of bombs and fuel with them and would be in enemy waters.

If they return to the South Pacific waters, what would they do? They could secure positions, hurt Commonwealth forces further, but to what end? Could they invade and effectively take Australia and NZ out of the war? No. They could cripple their airforces and navies, but the Japanese army was bogged down in China.

[Manuel]

This is my timeline, more or less, for the Battle of Midway, had the Japanese won a resounding victory.

1. Midway falls to Japan, and the US Pacific Fleet is decimated. All US fleets in the Pacific are withdrawn to Hawaii and California to await repairs.
2. Japan meanwhile initiates a powerful offensive against the Aleutian island chain, capturing them. Meanwhile they reinforce their positions in the Philippines and other islands, building up defenses.
3. A massive air strike occurs in naval harbors at Hawaii. Very minimal Japanese losses, the US Pacific Fleet all but destroyed.
4. Without a fleet, Guadalcanal never happens. The Japanese take the position easily, and the costly battle is avoided. As a result, Japan manages to push on New Guinea and the American Coral Sea, capturing both positions, and Japan initiates bombing campaigns against Australia.
5. Access to India, provided by Guadalcanal, is now severely limited. Few American supplies get through, and as a result, Chinese resistance falters. Japan makes valuable gains against the weakened resistance, but does not totally conquer the area.
6. More bombings of Hawaii, US forced to rebuild on Atlantic Ocean to avoid bombings. Air strikes in California occur, hoping to demoralize the American people.
7. Defeat seeming ever more likely, many Americans call for a peace settling with the Axis powers. American operations in North Africa continue, though several thousand troops are withdrawn to provide additional defense along the Pacific Coast. This causes Operation Torch to take longer than expected, Germany and Italy manage to reinforce Sicily in this time, and provide stiff resitance.
8. Japan, seeing American build up in the Atlantic, bomb the Panama Canal, rendering it useless. Americans must now send their Pacific fleet all around South America.
9. Southeast Asia and the Pacific islands now, for the time being, under firm control, Japanese forces go north of Manchuria, and open a second front against Stalin. Stalin, forced to redistribute troops, withdraws soldiers from the German front. Germany in turn, withdraws a less troops than Stalin did, but enough to provide Italy with a stronger defense, and reinforce positions in France. Russian-German front remains stagnant.
10. Franco, seeing the Axis powers make valuable gains, and sensing that he could benefit from joining them, declares war on Britain and takes Gibraltar.
11. Spanish troops are sent to aid Germany in the Russian front, and more troops cut off the Allied operations in North Africa from behind.
12. Surrounded by Italians and Spaniards, the Allied troops abandon Sicily.
13. Japan continues making advances into Sibera, and using the resources captured from all over the Pacific rim, has rebuilt its fleet to pre-war levels. The American fleet, small, moves up to Hawaii. Another Japanese victory occurs, and Americans cry out for settlement.
14. FDR loses re-election as people are disappointed in the way the war is going.
15. Combined German-Spanish strength against Russia causes Stalingrad to fall. Spain initiates bombing campaigns against Britain, similar to Germany’s. Britain surrenders.

This is as far as I have gotten, and I’m sure a few things could be fixed. I do not have terribly great knowledge of WW2, but I feel this presents a worst-case scenario for the results of the Battle of Midway. I would love anyone who has a greater knowledge in this area to point out errors, and impossibilities.

[Thunderhawk]

Midway is part of the Hawai'i archipelago. Its far off from the main islands and it was only a couple air strips. Its the battle of Midway as it occured around there. Many US fighters in the battle were from Hawai'i that did a stop over. It is far enough away to cause a short lag time, but close enough that holding Midway would require the seizure of the Hawai'ian main islands. US navy forces retreating from Midway to Hawai'i would do so only for fuel and quick resupply, or to defend the main islands. Had the IJN devestated the USA fleet to the point where they were ordered to California.. then there probably wouldnt have been much of a fleet left.


Hawaii had a populaion of ~400k. Subduing that many civilians from sabotage and militant resistence, and do so nicely (unlike their treatment of Philipinoes) would require a lot of soldiers. If they treat the civlian population badly, the American would cry out for blood even more so. They may not have understodd American stubornness, but they probably would understand bad treatment = worse negotiating position.


After the success of Midway, probably:

IJN unofficially (and quietly) shocked over their success. massive boost to ego. They persue USA fleet with their faster ships. The Japanese would probably leave their slower ships and whatever troops they had to rumage documents, destroy key industries, etc.. while the fleet (except for those slow and oil hungry ships left to defend the island) pursues the fleeing USA fleet. One group, (probably one carrier and fast escorts) makes a detour and a b-line to Panama to destroy the main damn that supplies the canal with water, electricity, etc.. If they do enough damage and get a flood going it could turn the region into a disaster area ala new Orleans.

The group then returns to Hawaii to resupply (from looted USA supplies).





After that is where Im unsure. Consolidation in the pacific would certainly follow. But what of Hawai'i?

If the Japanese take and hold it will require alot of troops for occupation, construction crews and supplies would have to be brought in - all of which would slow conquest of "easy pickings" in Asia. I'd have done it for negotiation reasons, but the Japanese (I suspect) would not. The Japanese wouldnt give up easy pickings in Asia to occupy Hawai'i. The IJN force at Midway was not equiped to level cities and destroy massive industry - they were equiped to fight another fleet. The majority of Hawaiin industry would be left alone. Major industries would be destroyed, the docks set a fire, etc.. But then the Japanese would have to leave. Marching into every city to burn every factory, depot and structure of military value would require an army they didnt bring. The Japanese would leave, the USA would return, cautious and probably with massive numbers.


The loss of the Pacific fleet could be swallowed. Violating USA land could not be. Efforts supplying the European theatre would be redistribued to the pacific. USA forces in Europe/North Africa would largely remain, but the ever increasing people and supplies would be capped. Ultimately, it would not affect Europe much. The landings in Italy and Southern France were not pivitol, just having troops in N.Africa and an active british navy would imply the threat, which would keeop some troops penned down for defence. Normandy may never have happened, but by then the Nazi warmachine was broken and dieing in Russia anyways.

[Far-Right Sage]

This is my timeline, more or less, for the Battle of Midway, had the Japanese won a resounding victory.

1. Midway falls to Japan, and the US Pacific Fleet is decimated. All US fleets in the Pacific are withdrawn to Hawaii and California to await repairs.
2. Japan meanwhile initiates a powerful offensive against the Aleutian island chain, capturing them. Meanwhile they reinforce their positions in the Philippines and other islands, building up defenses.
3. A massive air strike occurs in naval harbors at Hawaii. Very minimal Japanese losses, the US Pacific Fleet all but destroyed.
4. Without a fleet, Guadalcanal never happens. The Japanese take the position easily, and the costly battle is avoided. As a result, Japan manages to push on New Guinea and the American Coral Sea, capturing both positions, and Japan initiates bombing campaigns against Australia.
5. Access to India, provided by Guadalcanal, is now severely limited. Few American supplies get through, and as a result, Chinese resistance falters. Japan makes valuable gains against the weakened resistance, but does not totally conquer the area.
6. More bombings of Hawaii, US forced to rebuild on Atlantic Ocean to avoid bombings. Air strikes in California occur, hoping to demoralize the American people.
7. Defeat seeming ever more likely, many Americans call for a peace settling with the Axis powers. American operations in North Africa continue, though several thousand troops are withdrawn to provide additional defense along the Pacific Coast. This causes Operation Torch to take longer than expected, Germany and Italy manage to reinforce Sicily in this time, and provide stiff resitance.
8. Japan, seeing American build up in the Atlantic, bomb the Panama Canal, rendering it useless. Americans must now send their Pacific fleet all around South America.
9. Southeast Asia and the Pacific islands now, for the time being, under firm control, Japanese forces go north of Manchuria, and open a second front against Stalin. Stalin, forced to redistribute troops, withdraws soldiers from the German front. Germany in turn, withdraws a less troops than Stalin did, but enough to provide Italy with a stronger defense, and reinforce positions in France. Russian-German front remains stagnant.
10. Franco, seeing the Axis powers make valuable gains, and sensing that he could benefit from joining them, declares war on Britain and takes Gibraltar.
11. Spanish troops are sent to aid Germany in the Russian front, and more troops cut off the Allied operations in North Africa from behind.
12. Surrounded by Italians and Spaniards, the Allied troops abandon Sicily.
13. Japan continues making advances into Sibera, and using the resources captured from all over the Pacific rim, has rebuilt its fleet to pre-war levels. The American fleet, small, moves up to Hawaii. Another Japanese victory occurs, and Americans cry out for settlement.
14. FDR loses re-election as people are disappointed in the way the war is going.
15. Combined German-Spanish strength against Russia causes Stalingrad to fall. Spain initiates bombing campaigns against Britain, similar to Germany’s. Britain surrenders.

This is as far as I have gotten, and I’m sure a few things could be fixed. I do not have terribly great knowledge of WW2, but I feel this presents a worst-case scenario for the results of the Battle of Midway. I would love anyone who has a greater knowledge in this area to point out errors, and impossibilities.

Do you honestly think an American defeat in the Battle of Midway would mean an Axis victory in WWII?

[Manuel]

It's a hypothesis, and a project. The loss at Midway caused a chain reaction ending in a WW2 defeat. Just like RL victory caused a chain reaction allowing a victory. The same could be said of any battle, and it really is impossible to tell. There are many variable. I'm talking about a HUGE loss, crippling the US Fleet to the point where it was almost unusable. A smaller defeat, obviously, would not have had this outcome.

If you disagree, please help me explain why. I have to type up ten pages on this, and I'd like to be accurate. That's why I'm working out issues with you guys and other people I know using timelines and the like.

Also thunderhawk, it was dying. But if Japan saw it had resources to spare to help its allies in Europe by attacking Stalin from the otherside, what might that have meant for the German machine along the Russian front. This is still only 1942, it was still pretty evenly matched at this time I believe.

Also, say FDR loses his reelection to Lindbergh. A peace settlement would be likely, especially under the circumstances outlined, wouldn't it?

[Far-Right Sage]

It's not that I neccessarily disagree. I just find the prospect interesting. You are good at writing alternate history.

I don't think the United States would surrender though, after bombings of Hawaii and California. Hawaii was only a territory then and didn't become a state until 1959. The Japanese probably would have launched bombing raids against Los Angeles and San Francisco to try and break the will of the American people, but I still doubt that would warrant a surrender. If Japan went through with all of its original plans before the Midway defeat, such as the bombing of oilfields in Texas to cripple the United States economically, then it also might have helped make the U.S. more vulnerable to German attacks.

If Spain took Gibraltar and Axis control was established there, the Germans would have went through with their plans for the East coast and would have had the Luftwaffe launch air strikes on New York, Boston, Washington D.C, and other major strategic areas. By then, I would say it would have been over.

And if the Soviet Union was defeated as you suggested, Hitler probably would have put Operation Isabella in effect, secured bases in Spain and Portugal, and then worked with the Spanish for more extensive aerial bombardment of major British cities.

[Thunderhawk]

The loss at Midway caused a chain reaction ending in a WW2 defeat. Just like RL victory caused a chain reaction allowing a victory.

Except it wasnt a chain reaction. Japan had limited resources (oil, iron) and limited industrial capacity. They were the big fish in the Pacific and most of Asia, but thats about it. They industrial capacity of the USA was no geared for war until a little while after the Pearl Harbour attacks. By the time the battle of Midway happened the USA was already geared for war. The USA was producing dozens of escort carriers a year, training pilots, continiously ramping up production. How many warships did Japan produce during the war? The USA was producing ships for their own navy and supplying some to the British.

A disasterous defeat for the USA at Midway would leave Hawaii open to the Japanese, it would hinder aid to Aus/NZ forces, and it would make people on the West coast terrified. And?
Industry would still turnout new ships, planes and arms. USA industry would not have been touched. Alot of veterans would be gone, and that would hurt training and development, but it would not be ended.

In the end, A disasterous defeat at Midway would have much the same outcome as Pearl harbour did: give a free hand to Japanese movements and expansion for several months. The USA would rebuild and come back.

But if Japan saw it had resources to spare to help its allies in Europe by attacking Stalin from the otherside,

1) Japan had a Non-Aggression Pact with the USSR. It was confirmed by the Japanese in mid 1941.

2) After Japan signed the NAP Stalin transfered some 60 divisions from the far east to Moscow's defence and counter offensive. Furthermore, not all those troops transfered were used or part of the offensive reserve. If Japan broke their word and invaded in mid '42, the Soviets would have forces to counter attack with. Not enough to stop the Japanese, but 200-300,000 would be enough to slow them down untill more forces arived.

3) Japan did not have resources to spare. Part of the reason for signing the NAP with the Soviets was to free up their armies in northern China so they can be transferred south where they were needed.

If Japan went through with all of its original plans before the Midway defeat, such as the bombing of oilfields in Texas

How would Japan have done this? They had no trans-pacific bombers and their carrier aircraft would not have had enough range or bombs to do real damage.

If Spain took Gibraltar and Axis control was established there, the Germans would have went through with their plans for the East coast and would have had the Luftwaffe launch air strikes on New York, Boston, Washington D.C, and other major strategic areas.

The Nazis had no long range bombers. They had designs (of dubious ability) but not a single bomber. Their Carrier Graf Zepplin was never anywhere near completion nor was it actually assigned aircraft.