Truth About 1932-1933 USSR Famine - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#792197
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econo ... deaths.xls

This table shows all the registered births and deaths in famine-stricken areas of the USSR from 1932-1933.

Ukraine: 1.9mn deaths, 449k births in 1933; 668k deaths in 1932 to 782 births. Compare to 1.1mn births in 1927 to 522k deaths. Just lay the "7 million" figure to rest already. Your flatulent data has been exposed. The figure in Ukraine doesn't quite reach 1.5 million for 1932-1933

North Caucasia: 416k deaths in 1933 to 138k births.

Lower Volga: 251k deaths 1933 to 94k births.
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By Maxim Litvinov
#792349
AHIV e a copy of The Years of Hunger here. It is indeed the most detailed and accurate account of the famine of 1931-1933 here to date.

The primary figures on excess deaths amount to 2.9 million, then you have to add the figures from Kazakhstan which amount to another 1.5 million, the deaths in the OGPU system (0.3 million) (pp. 412-416)

So the number that they conclude died in the famine "amount to some 4.6 million". As they state: "Whicever estimate we adopt, or even if we use only the officially regsistered deaths, this is an enormous figure. In the twentieth century, this number of deaths from a famine was exceeded only in China after 1958." (p. 415)
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By Le Rouge
#792357
So the number that they conclude died in the famine "amount to some 4.6 million". As they state: "Whicever estimate we adopt, or even if we use only the officially regsistered deaths, this is an enormous figure. In the twentieth century, this number of deaths from a famine was exceeded only in China after 1958." (p. 415)

Numbers mean little. The percentage of the population that died is more relevant to how devasting and inhumane a famine is.
By Stasi
#792373
Ukraine's population circa 1932: 28mn
Famine deaths from 1932-1933: 1.5mn
Percentage of population that died from famine: 5%

The USSR's population numbered at about 165mn. With 4.5mn dead from famine, less than 3% of the USSR's population was affected.
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By Maxim Litvinov
#792377
I'm sorry - where do you get that 1.5 million statistic from? As I've shown, the work which you took your initial figures from actually shows a death toll of 4.6 million.

Assuming a population of 165 million, that would indeed make a *death toll* of 3% of the USSR-wide population, although no doubt somewhere over 50% of the population was actually affected - through lowered grain supplies, severe malnutrition etc. etc.
By Stasi
#792386
I'm sorry - where do you get that 1.5 million statistic from? As I've shown, the work which you took your initial figures from actually shows a death toll of 4.6 million.


You seem to have misread my post. My figures applied narrowly to Ukraine where much hysteria has been stirred by the West in regard to an infliction of "genocide". Just look at the title of Wikipedia's page about this; they actually call it "Holodomor" which is Ukrainian for "to starve".
By Sans Salvador
#792995
Maxim - p. 415 of that book seems to indicate they estimate 5.7m deaths. They have a table saying Estimate 1, Estimate 2, Estimate 3. Estimate 1 (which they list as "low estimate") says 4.6m. However, estimate 3, which they refer to as "Our estimate" gives 5.7m.

On the other hand, you know the authors.

Eauz- your link appears to be down but I assume you are linking to Ludo Martens' "Another View of Stalin?" That book's section on the famine is a crock of shit (and the data in Wheatcroft and Davies' book refutes that just as much as it does the right wing propagandists like Conquest).

IIRC, it tries to attribute the famine primarily to counter-revolutionary sabotage and weather and disease conditions which were going around. But like Doug Tottle's book it is largely based upon, it uses sleight of hand.

For example, he establishes that there was sabotage (an irrefutable fact) and then asserts without evidence that x amount of losses were due to sabotage. For example, some slaughtered livestock. Then he provides a figure on the decline in livestock and attributes it to this. However, the decline in livestock was not because of people going and killing them, but a result of the famine itself! The same basic technique is ofund in all his arguments.
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By Maxim Litvinov
#793112
Sans Salvador - you appear to be correct, although I'd like to qualify that.

I haven't read the whole chapter, but the table on p. 415 that you refer to seems to be referring to different methods of estimating excess deaths. There are three different types of estimates there which both authors call "intelligent guesswork" and the last of these is the most specific (and the mean) at 5.7 million. They call it "our estimate, after 'Lorimer corrections', approx. (4.6 above + 1.1 million from the Kurman gap".

I'm not quite so sure if they're saying this is their 'final official' estimate, or rather that they're saying that when they calculated what sort of figure should result from Lorimer corrections + Kurman gap they came up with that figure.

Clearly the figure isn't a final one, because there's then the following sentence followed by pages more of excess death estimates:

"Whichever estimate we adopt, or even if we use only the officially registered deaths, this is an enormous figure."

Finally, I don't *know* the authors. I talked to one of them and have emailed him a few times on matters unrelated to the famine. I haven't even met the other one.[/code]
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By Eauz
#793203
If you do the math, I'm sure it will add up for you...

First of all, it was provoked by civil war led by the kulaks and the nostalgic reactionary elements of Tsarism against the collectivization of agriculture.
Now, just in non-partisan terms, if one group tries to take over another group, there will be "reactionary" elements to group who wants to keep their "way of life". So, sure maybe part of it was due to the lack of "food" for the animals, if you think about it realistic, you will come to the conclusion that to attack the new group trying to take over your resources, one is going to attack them in multiple ways, especially by reducing their food supply. Too bad for the reactionaries, by attacking the food supply, the "Soviet's" can't receive much food, but at the same time, it starves themselves.

The second cause of the famine was the drought that hit certain areas of Ukraine in 1930, 1931 and 1932. For Professor James E. Mace, who defends the Ukrainian far-right line at Harvard, it is a fable created by the Soviet régime. However, in his A History of Ukraine, Mikhail Hrushevsky, described by the Nationalists themselves as `Ukraine's leading historian', writing of the year 1932, claimed that `Again a year of drought coincided with chaotic agricultural conditions'.
Do you need me to explain this one? It seems as if many publishing’s about the man-made famine in Ukraine by Stalin, suggests that there actually WAS a drought which occurred in the Ukraine, resulting in widespread starvation.

As for the third, Dr. Hans Blumenfeld wrote:
`There is no doubt that the famine claimed many victims. I have no basis on which to estimate their number .... Probably most deaths in 1933 were due to epidemics of typhus, typhoid fever, and dysentery. Waterborne diseases were frequent in Makeyevka; I narrowly survived an attack of typhus fever.'
- Life Begins at 65, (Montréal: Harvest House, 1986)

The fourth cause of the famine was the inevitable disorder provoked by the reorganization of agriculture and the equally profound upheaval in economic and social relations: lack of experience, improvisation and confusion in orders, lack of preparation and leftist radicalism among some of the poorer peasants and some of the civil servants.
The last one is just logical. If there is going to be disorder, invariably, the social structures of society will decline, and any "productivity" will be harder to achieve, because organization of a society is not in place.

You can't deny that any of this was also playing a part in the famine. What I find odd, is that one would rather assume as a big picture that all this was the fault of "Stalin", but one must look deeper into the issue. I'm not saying the Soviets did NOTHING, but to suggest that the Soviets were 100% at fault is quite tough to digest.
By Sans Salvador
#793247
If you do the math, I'm sure it will add up for you..
Oh, and all this time I thought it was I who had real quantitative evidence and Maretens/Tottle who were doing mere hand waving.

Now, just in non-partisan terms, if one group tries to take over another group, there will be "reactionary" elements to group who wants to keep their "way of life". So, sure maybe part of it was due to the lack of "food" for the animals, if you think about it realistic, you will come to the conclusion that to attack the new group trying to take over your resources, one is going to attack them in multiple ways, especially by reducing their food supply. Too bad for the reactionaries, by attacking the food supply, the "Soviet's" can't receive much food, but at the same time, it starves themselves.
I am well aware that opponents of the Soviet state engaged in sabotage. The problem is, we can't go from "they engaged in sabotage" to "sabotage destroyed x amount of things." this is what Martens' book does (and apparently the people he quotes).

`Their [kulak] opposition took the initial form of slaughtering their cattle and horses in preference to having them collectivized. The result was a grievous blow to Soviet agriculture, for most of the cattle and horses were owned by the kulaks. Between 1928 and 1933 the number of horses in the USSR declined from almost 30,000,000 to less than 15,000,000; of horned cattle from 70,000,000 (including 31,000,0000 cows) to 38,000,000 (including 20,000,000 cows); of sheep and goats from 147,000,000 to 50,000,000; and of hogs from 20,000,000 to 12,000,000. Soviet rural economy had not recovered from this staggering loss by 1941.
If you think this shit meets any justifiable standards of scholarship, you're crazy.

We have quantitative evidence of the decline in fodder, of the increase in diseases among the animals, of declines in their weight. We hav official reports from the time strongly criticizing the awful conditions animals were kept in in collective farms. Further, perverse (unintended) material incentives to abandon livestock were built into governemnt policy to entice people to join collective farms. All the quantitative evidence of cattle slaughtering for ocunter-revolutionary reasons, while somewhat incomplete, points to a highly peripheral role.

Do you need me to explain this one? It seems as if many publishing’s about the man-made famine in Ukraine by Stalin, suggests that there actually WAS a drought which occurred in the Ukraine, resulting in widespread starvation.
And this is at best misleading. There were certain periods of drought, mixed with certain periods of high rainfall (although the fluctuations themselves likely had negative effects). Bad weather did play a role, but temperature probably had more to do with it than rainfall. It is funny how Martens thinks it gives credibility to those claims because they were made by nationalist historians who he thinks wouldn't have had an interest in lying. Not lying doesn't mean someone is accurate. Being correct requires much more than simply wanting to be correct.

Additionally, even though the govenrment had no control over the weather, they were utterly irresponsible to gamble on good weather in their agricultural plans.

`There is no doubt that the famine claimed many victims. I have no basis on which to estimate their number .... Probably most deaths in 1933 were due to epidemics of typhus, typhoid fever, and dysentery. Waterborne diseases were frequent in Makeyevka; I narrowly survived an attack of typhus fever.'
It is questionable if a substabtial portion of excess deaths can be attributed to epidemics. first off, please tell me you don't think that in famines most people die because they get so few calories their bodies simply shut down. Most deaths in famines are a result of pre-existing diseases having greater significance because of weakening immunity. Most deaths caused by these diseases will be a result of the famine, as well as an increased incidence of disease resulting from famine. But lets go ahead and see what happens if we assume diseases weren't a result of the famine. There were a total of 1,870,000 incidences of Typhus and typhoid fever combined in the entire USSR from 1931-33. Even assuming that 1)All these cases were in regions famine deaths were measured in 2)Everyone died from these diseases and 3)The incidences in the surrounding years were 0 so all deaths would be "Excesss," this would only be about 1/3 of the excess deaths. Of course, the real amount of excess deaths due to these diseases in those regions was much lower. Dysentery did not have an especially large significance, but most increases in it it were obviously a direct result of various problems with storing food in Soviet agriculture.



The last one is just logical. If there is going to be disorder, invariably, the social structures of society will decline, and any "productivity" will be harder to achieve, because organization of a society is not in place.
Partially true. However, much of the failure can be attributed to specific soviet policies that were not necessary for the new institutional forms, rather than simply being a result of institutional upheaval. It is also hard to be impressed by the bumbling way collectivization was carried out in the first place.
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By Eauz
#793508
I am well aware that opponents of the Soviet state engaged in sabotage. The problem is, we can't go from "they engaged in sabotage" to "sabotage destroyed x amount of things." this is what Martens' book does (and apparently the people he quotes).
I'm not defending his stats, what I'm defending is the fact that people ignore that these things occurred. Stats mean nothing, while the actual action means everything. If I go and throw all my food I bought in the garbage because I don't want roommates eating it and then start complaining that I have no food, who's fault is it?

Bad weather did play a role, but temperature probably had more to do with it than rainfall.
so... you're blaming the government or the weather? Seriously, if it's 35 - 40 degrees for 30 days straight, even a fair amount of rain, it's going to get soaked up quickly through evaporation. Same thing if it's cold, nothing going to grow if it's very cold, with rain. I’m not sure if any government can prevent a natural disaster from destroying agriculture.

first off, please tell me you don't think that in famines most people die because they get so few calories their bodies simply shut down. Most deaths in famines are a result of pre-existing diseases having greater significance because of weakening immunity. Most deaths caused by these diseases will be a result of the famine, as well as an increased incidence of disease resulting from famine
Thus... disease was a factor. I.e.: note the word "epidemic".

Partially true. However, much of the failure can be attributed to specific soviet policies that were not necessary for the new institutional forms, rather than simply being a result of institutional upheaval. It is also hard to be impressed by the bumbling way collectivization was carried out in the first place.
Well, if people were not in favour of this "collectivization" plan of the soviets, then I would come to the conclusion that they had no desire to take part in the plan, thus there would be no organization in this society. This would include soviet planning of the harvest as well...

Sans Salvador, listen to me, carefully... I am NOT suggesting that the Soviets had NO part in the famine, I'm just finding it hard to accept this argument that the Soviets were the ONLY reason this famine occurred, and that NO other, person, thing, group, weather pattern or disease that played a part in this famine.
By Sans Salvador
#793546
Stats mean nothing, while the actual action means everything. If I go and throw all my food I bought in the garbage because I don't want roommates eating it and then start complaining that I have no food, who's fault is it?
The stats are important precisely because we need to know how many deaths were caused by anything analogous to what you described. If a couple thousand out of around 5m died in that way, we would have to conclude that the famine was not the fault of the vast majority of the victims.

so... you're blaming the government or the weather?
Of course not.

I’m not sure if any government can prevent a natural disaster from destroying agriculture.
There wasn't natural disaster. It was "bad weather" and not unprecedented.

Soviet agricultural plans did aggravate the consequences of the weather by, among other things, putting strong constraints on the times in which it was feasible to sow. With more flexibility, it is easier to mitigate the conditions of the weather.

Thus... disease was a factor. I.e.: note the word "epidemic".
There is not evidence of any sort existing of epidemic that was not caused by the famine. Yes, these diseases existed, but remember people analyzing the famine look at excess deaths. The decrease in calories consumed is what caused these diseases to kill more than in previous years.


Sans Salvador, listen to me, carefully... I am NOT suggesting that the Soviets had NO part in the famine, I'm just finding it hard to accept this argument that the Soviets were the ONLY reason this famine occurred, and that NO other, person, thing, group, weather pattern or disease that played a part in this famine.
I never felt that you thought anyo ther way. I was simply pointing out how erroneous Martens' book was on this issue.
By Stasi
#793635
Eh, unless you can actually refute the figures posted in the initial message of this thread, cease with these western-minded rants.
By Stasi
#793645
My post was directed towards those who'd dare to contradict the material posted here.
By Stasi
#796848
Well, having completed the first five chapters of Davies and Wheatcroft's "Years of Hunger", I've observed the numerous natural factors contributing to the famine.

Plaughing:

In July 1930, there were 20.9mn horses. Exactly one year later, the number declined to 19.5mn. In 1932, the figure plummeted to 16.2mn. The factors contributing to this decline were a shortage of fodder; the kolkhozy used up fodder in autumn without planning for spring. In the Lower Volga, the straw roofs used for fodder brought disease. Ill horses were not isolated from the healthy. Developed diseases included ringworm, mange, and glanders. In 1931, there were 964,000 tractors of which 393,000 were imported. A crisis in foreign trade the following year obstructed the aquisition of additional tractors from abroad. Of the 679,000 tractors supplied during 1932, only half were available in time for the harvest. According to RGAE 7486/37/235, 20% of all tractors were damaged while an additional 20% did not function due to a need of spare parts.

Weather:

In 1931, an extraordinary cold spring caused a delay in sowing in Ukraine and the Lower Volga Basin. June and July were far hotter than usual. The southeast suffered from dry-winds in June. In May-July, a normal weather pattern in the Volga, Black-Earth, and Ukrainian steppe of warm, dry, south-easterly winds from Kazakhstan gave way to colder and wetter winds from the northwest. For the first time in 12 years, south-easterlies predominated throughout these months. Winds became scorching, no rain fell. Grain yields significantly fell. Known as sukhovei, these winds brought famine in 1891 and 1921. Drought, starting in May spread to the Volga in June. A defecit in rainfall was accompanied by temperatures higher than average in June.

"Rain poured down endlessly, raods were turned into a sea of mud, potatoes could not be dug, hemp could not be harvested, the hemp and sunflower seeds were drowned in the fields"---RGASPI 17/2/484

As a result, the overall grain harvest in 1931 was 10-15mn tons below that of the previous year.

"In 1932, the Soviet Union experienced another poor harvest ", pp.105

Poor weather, lack of autumn and spring ploughing, shortage and poor quality of seed, poor cultivation of crops and the delay in harvesting combined to increase incidence of fungal disease.

By August 15, harvested area was 10.6mn hectares less than in 1931. Threashing was 5-7mn hectares behind 1931. The yield was poor and shortage of labour made threshing slow. There was slow progress of the harvest, endless rain in August-September, and an insufficient supply of horses.

The 1932 total harvest according to TSUNKHU was 67.11mn tons compared to 69.48mn tons the previous year. Thus, Conquest is full of shit; the 1932 harvest was indeed worse than the one of the previous year.

Narkomzem reported that the disinfecting of fields, storehoses, and sacks for harvested grain were done extremely badly in Ukraine.

"Winter wheat was exteremely weedy and looked as though it was badly rusted. All spring wheat I saw was simply rotten with rust"--Andrew Cairns, Scottish agricultural expert

From Eastern Europe where there was an exceptionally severe rust epidemic in 1932, leading to a spread of spores. Ergot and pests caused damage before harvesting of grain began.

According to Kuibyshev, infestation in Ukraine resulted from poor sowing, ploughing as well as undesirable conditions in weather.

Myth of Excess Collections:

In numerous cases there were allocations of seed by the government.

Petrovsky recommended for grain collections in Ukraine to be rudced and a move towards free trade. He proposed that regions affected be opened up to relief by Red Cross and Friends of the Children.

According to RGASPI 17/162/12, Ukraine was to receive a seed loan of 110,000 tons.

In 7 March 1932, a decree called for the END OF EXPORT OF GRAIN . Other items of the decree called for further allocations of grain for seed, amounting to 23mn puds.

The Politburo urgently authorised a loan of 41,000 tons of seed. Source: RGASPI 17/3/886

In 1932, 1.26 tons were send in 1932 from central funds, three times the amount provided in the spring of 1931.
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By Maxim Litvinov
#796881
Interesting. I have the book here but have not bothered to read it in full yet.

Can you tell me what effect the authors ascribe to the beginning of collectivization? Was it responsible for a downturn in efficiency or the death of lifestock?
By Sans Salvador
#796904
How in the world is what you describe under your "plaughing" paragraph a natural cause?

You would also have to be looking at the book incredibly selectively to not see the problems with the collections (in a summary chapter they in fact say "The fundamental cause of the deterioration in agriculture in 1928-33 was the unremitting state pressure on rural resources). Of course, the information refutes the idea of an intentional famine.

However, Wheatcroft and Davies do err in putting too little emphasis on one (mainly) natural factor: plant disease. Tauger has pointed out that their critique of his claims about plant disease is just plain wrong.

Maxim - They say that in the ecollective farms livestock were kept in poor conditions (even regarding the effects of crowding) and that the proximity they were in contributed to the spreading of disease among them. Also, collectivization sometimes created perverse incentives for owners of livestock to abandon them or sell them (to people who apparently didn't have reason to take care of them).

This is all from memory though, I read the book last summer.
By Stasi
#797006
The horses became ill due to deteriorating conditions in the countryside. This was clearly a natural factor.

The assertion that the Politburo contrived a famine in order to crush a so-called distinct Ukrainian nation (a ludicrous concept since Ukrainians and Russians are virtually the same) is beyond ridiculous. How would the USSR regime benefit by planning a catastrophe in its own country? And why would Stalin, a Georgian, hold some chauvinistically Russian animosity towards Ukrainians? It just does not make any sense. This aare questions to which I've never seen a plausable explanation.

I've read material from these hysterical Ukrainian nationalists purporting that even the famine of 1921-1922 was "man-made"; a lie cannot possibly be more blatant. It was caused entirely by natural factors and the Bolsheviks sought the aid of international agencies that fed approximately 15 million people.

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