Immigration and crime: a negative correlation - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#1799518
A really old article, but very interesting nonetheless.

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Good waves: If there's a link between urban crime and immigration, sociologists say, it's probably not what you think

AMONG OTHER THINGS, 2005 was the year that the Boston Miracle seemed to become a distant memory. The storied drop in the city's murder rate in the 1990s had drawn scholars, politicians, and police chiefs from around the country to observe and learn from Boston's crime-fighting prowess. But the murder rate has been climbing since it bottomed out in 1999, and this year it jumped to a 10-year high. Coming at a time when murder rates continued to fall in other big cities like Chicago and New York, the upsurge has sent local politicians scrambling for solutions, and examining what it was that worked so well last time.

To be sure, people have been dissecting and disputing the causes of the dramatic nationwide '90s decline in crime since it first showed up as a trend. Some credit innovative policing policies or tougher sentencing, others point to improving economic conditions or an aging population, still others the end of the crack epidemic.

The fact that the 1990s also saw one of the greatest influxes of immigrants in the country's history isn't often mentioned in these discussions. Crime, it has long been assumed, is one of the inevitable costs of immigration. As George W. Grayson, a government professor at the College of William & Mary, wrote in the Washington Post opinion pages this summer, ''the evidence is overwhelming that an influx of poor immigrants-whether Italians, Irish, or Poles in the 19th and early 20th centuries or Hispanics in the late 20th and early 21st centuries-does bring crime, unruly drinking, public urination, unemployment, overcrowded dwellings, and property damage."

It may be surprising, then, to find agreement among several leading criminologists that immigration does not cause crime-and may even reduce it. None of them would argue that immigration is the most important factor everywhere, especially since the recent rise in Boston's murder rate comes as its foreign-born population continues to grow. But the increased flow of immigrants to major American cities nationwide, argues Robert J. Sampson, a Harvard sociologist and lead author of a major recent study on the topic, ''has been one of the more plausible explanations that we've seen for the decrease in the violence rate."


. . .

Skepticism about a link between increased crime and immigration isn't entirely new. Working in the 1920s and '30s, at the end of the country's last great wave of immigration, criminology pioneers Edwin Sutherland and Thorsten Sellin found that immigrants had lower crime rates than both native-born Americans and second-generation immigrants. It was American culture, Sutherland and Sellin concluded, that caused crime, and the less exposure to it one had the less likely one was to be a criminal.

Published earlier this year, the study led by Harvard's Sampson echoed these earlier surveys. Sampson and his colleagues followed a diverse group of nearly 3,000 Chicago youths from 1995 to 2002, and found that immigrant kids were less likely than peers of similar socioeconomic backgrounds to participate in everything from gang fights to arson to purse snatchings. Not only that, but even nonimmigrant kids who happened to live in immigrant neighborhoods were less likely than otherwise to be involved in violence.

Part of the explanation for this, Sampson says, is that immigrant families, while often poor, are more likely than other poor families to have stable, two-parent households, one factor widely understood to decrease the odds of violent activity.

But that didn't explain everything. In Sampson's study, simply being a first-generation immigrant, no matter what one's parents' marital status or one's education level, made one less likely to end up committing a violent crime. And while the immigrants in Sampson's sample were predominantly Latino, the trend also held for the African and Caribbean immigrants he followed.

Sampson and others can only hypothesize as to why. ''New immigrants," suggests John Hagan, a sociologist at Northwestern University, ''tend to be a self-selected group who are highly ambitious, energetic, innovative." Immigrants, it's been repeatedly found, are significantly more likely than their nonimmigrant neighbors to have jobs. Hagan suggests that they're also less likely to be interested in something as possibly ruinous as crime.


Ramiro Martinez, a sociologist at Florida International University, has come to similar conclusions by studying homicide rates among Latino and immigrant communities in Miami, El Paso, San Antonio, San Diego, Chicago, and other cities. In each, he has found immigrants heavily underrepresented-especially considering their socioeconomic status-among convicted murderers. Andrew Karmen of the John Jay College of Criminal Justice has found analogous results for New York state.

In fact, Martinez points out, some of America's best-known border towns have the country's lowest murder rates. ''San Diego, for example-a place that captures the public imagination with all this concern about losing the borders to Mexico-has one of the lowest homicide rates for any major American urban area in the United States." El Paso, another city seen as bearing the brunt of the swelling ranks of illegal immigrants, regularly ranks among the country's safest cities.

. . .

There are limits to the data in these studies. For one thing, they focus on violent crime rather than property crime, which is more prevalent. And little work has been done on immigration's effect on nonurban crime-perhaps understandably, since big cities both absorb most of the country's immigrants and experience most of its crime.

No studies, furthermore, have been able to determine whether illegal immigrants-who tend to loom particularly large in public fears-are as crime-averse as legal immigrants. On this front, though, criminologists have at least been able to make informed guesses. Sampson, for example, points out that 75 percent of the immigrants in his study listed themselves as noncitizens. While many of those may have been in the process of applying for citizenship, a good number, he suspects, were simply illegal. And Martinez claims that he's seen very few illegal immigrants in the prison populations, homicide reports, and detectives' assessments he's studied. ''They're laying low," he says, and committing a crime would only get them noticed.

Some, however, take issue with these findings-and not just anti-immigration activists. Wesley Skogan, a Northwestern University political scientist, has done detailed surveys of crime and quality of life throughout Chicago. Even when he controlled for poverty, he found an increase in the concentration of Spanish-speaking immigrants in a neighborhood increased ''crime, social disorder problems, and physical decay."

In part, Skogan argues, this is because Chicago's immigrants are largely young and male, and young males are invariably the most crime-prone segment of any population. In addition, he says, immigrants, especially illegal immigrants, drive up crime by serving as easy targets for what Skogan calls ''specialty gangs" who target illegals because ''they can't report crimes, and they're walking around with a lot of cash-they're called 'walking ATM machines."'

Skogan also points out that immigrant experiences vary widely, especially in the second and third generation. While Chicago's immigration is largely Mexican, ''if you're talking about New York, for example, it's a more complicated mix of people coming in."

Sampson readily admits that the immigrant effect weakens with each successive generation. Like Edwin Sutherland and Thorsten Sellin, Sampson finds that the children of immigrants are more crime-prone than their parents, the third generation more crime-prone still. Why that is, he admits, is ''really the $64,000 question, that's really at the forefront of the research."

What it suggests, though, is that the causes of crime lie less with immigrants than with the country that they, like generations of new arrivals before them, are busily assimilating themselves into.

Boston.com


Seems logical. Immigrants move to a country to seek a better future. They're obviously very likely to be hard-working. And if American culture does cause crime, then it's not surprising that immigrants would less likely become criminals, considering they would've recently moved and not have integrated.
User avatar
By Dave
#1801477
If American culture is to blame, it seems to provoke HIGHER criminality in the immigrant population than the natives.

And sorry,
Abood wrote:Seems logical. Immigrants move to a country to seek a better future. They're obviously very likely to be hard-working. And if American culture does cause crime, then it's not surprising that immigrants would less likely become criminals, considering they would've recently moved and not have integrated.

American culture causes all manner of social disorders. Unlike Canada, the immigrants we receive are primarily unskilled and of relatively low intelligence. Unsurprisingly, these immigrants have higher crime rates and social services dependency ratios than the native population.

Bad article.
User avatar
By Doctor State
#1801481
American culture causes all manner of social disorders. Unlike Canada, the immigrants we receive are primarily unskilled and of relatively low intelligence. Unsurprisingly, these immigrants have higher crime rates and social services dependency ratios than the native population.

Bad article.

A sophisticated scholar or academic wouldn't condemn an article merely for challenging his previous notions. He would find evidence to challenge the evidence presented.

And someone who makes normative claims about genetic superiority and inferiority should love open borders. The best of the world can all congregate in one place, pushing the worst out.
User avatar
By Dave
#1801499
Doctor State wrote:A sophisticated scholar or academic wouldn't condemn an article merely for challenging his previous notions. He would find evidence to challenge the evidence presented.

I'm not an academic, and I've shown many times that immigrants have higher crime rates and welfare dependency rates. It gets tiresome seeing people retire back to their emotionally derived opinions.

Immigrant vs. Native Dependency on Social Services

I don't doubt that immigrant concentration in Chicago actually does reduce crime rates, as crime-prone hispanic immigrants drive out even more crime-prone blacks.

If we look at all hispanics, then hispanics are 3.3 times more likely to be in prison than whites; they are 4.2 times more likely to be in prison for murder, and 5.8 times more likely to be in prison for felony drug crimes.

Doctor State wrote:And someone who makes normative claims about genetic superiority and inferiority should love open borders. The best of the world can all congregate in one place, pushing the worst out.

That's what some 19th century thinkers thought, as it didn't occur to them that the unfit would outbreed the fit. That's of course what has happened since birth control.

Furthermore, such logic completely ignores genetic similarity, namely, that people are happiest and that trust is highest in homogeneous communities.
User avatar
By Doctor State
#1801506
If we look at all hispanics, then hispanics are 3.3 times more likely to be in prison than whites; they are 4.2 times more likely to be in prison for murder, and 5.8 times more likely to be in prison for felony drug crimes.

I can believe that, but what percentage of Hispanics are immigrants? 2nd generation Hispanics are not immigrants, after all.

That's what some 19th century thinkers thought, as it didn't occur to them that the unfit would outbreed the fit. That's of course what has happened since birth control.

At that point we can either blame immigration, or we can blame welfare for subsidizing unfit memes (like Catholic opposition to birth control) or the democratic process for granting the productive and the unproductive equal political power.
Furthermore, such logic completely ignores genetic similarity, namely, that people are happiest and that trust is highest in homogeneous communities.
I don't doubt that. Urban areas are less homogeneous, rural areas are more homogeneous. People in "homogeneous communities" are probably much more likely to know each other by name, several generations deep.
User avatar
By Dave
#1801515
Doctor State wrote:I can believe that, but what percentage of Hispanics are immigrants? 2nd generation Hispanics are not immigrants, after all.

There are about 46 million hispanics in America, of whom about 20 million or so are legal immigrants. Of course, "hispanic" as we know is a broad category and includes everything from white Cubans to black Belizians (sp?). Of interest to me would be precisely the number of mestizos, but such records are not kept and the FBI likes to pretend hispanics are white.

At any rate, surely you can see the logic of counting descendants of immigrants, as multigenerational data (the best data set can be seen in Generations of Exclusion, by UCLA) show no indication of hispanics converging with the American mainstream (even 4th generation and longer).

I would assume that native-born hispanics have a higher crime rate than recent immigrants though, precisely because of what the article Abood posted posits: that American culture encourages criminality. I know for a fact that illegitimacy is higher among native-born hispanics than immigrants, for instance.

Doctor State wrote:At that point we can either blame immigration, or we can blame welfare for subsidizing unfit memes (like Catholic opposition to birth control) or the democratic process for granting the productive and the unproductive equal political power.

Indeed, focusing solely on immigration is very foolish, especially since some immigration is quite beneficial. Historically white immigrants to America show no difference from Americans of old stock within three generations, and of course men like Albert Einstein and Enrico Fermi were immigrants.

Doctor State wrote:I don't doubt that. Urban areas are less homogeneous, rural areas are more homogeneous. People in "homogeneous communities" are probably much more likely to know each other by name, several generations deep.

A reasonable conclusion, but the data adjust for population size. Robert Putnam has done the best work on this that I've seen.
http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi- ... 1&SRETRY=0

The sociobiological explanation for these data would be kin selection.
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By Doctor State
#1801541
I would assume that native-born hispanics have a higher crime rate than recent immigrants though, precisely because of what the article Abood posted posits: that American culture encourages criminality. I know for a fact that illegitimacy is higher among native-born hispanics than immigrants, for instance.

I would too, but for a different reason: the immigration filter doesn't apply to the children. The parents had the ambition to leave their country and go to another one. They left poverty for relative affluence. The children, on the other hand, are a product of their environment.
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By Dave
#1801543
If immigrants are high quality, then their children will tend to be high quality as well, just more Americanized. If the immigrants are not of high quality, then their children will not be either. Note that descendants of Northeast Asians tend to do quite well.

I don't think anyone should be surprised that people who work in unskilled occupations for subsistence wages aren't exactly the best and brightest, and their kids aren't either.
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By Thunderhawk
#1802676
I don't think anyone should be surprised that people who work in unskilled occupations for subsistence wages aren't exactly the best and brightest, and their kids aren't either.


Do you have a comparison of criminality(?) rates for the immigrant and non-immigrant menial labourers and the working poor?
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By Dave
#1802701
I am guessing that the non-immigrant pool is more criminal because it includes blacks, who have out of control levels of criminality. I will try to find some figures adjusted for SES and other factors later. One problem with these figures is that many urban police departments ban inquiring into the immigration status of criminals, and the FBI often classifies hispanics as white.
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By Paradigm
#1803063
Dave wrote:Note that descendants of Northeast Asians tend to do quite well.

But this was not always true. In the 19th century, Chinese immigrants were much like Mexican immigrants today. They lived in poor, cloistered communities, didn't speak English, had high crime rates, and put downward pressure on wages.
User avatar
By Dave
#1803076
Even sixth generation hispanics show no signs of converging with mainstream social indicators. The Chinese and Japanese began showing progress very rapidly, despite hostile discrimination and legislation. The key thing to look for in the near future is whether emerging hispanic majority states become more like Hawaii, which is politically and economically dominated by the Asian community, or start to look more like your typical Latin American nation, with a white elite and a relatively impoverished mestizo majority. Thus far the latter looks more likely, which makes me wonder if Republican movers and shakers who could put a stop this secretly want to be like Mexican oligarchs.
User avatar
By Dave
#1803089
As a matter of fact, yes. Cuban Americans are largely white. Dominicans are mostly mulatto and Mexicans are mostly mestizo. I'm sure there are also cultural differences, but I don't know enough about the various groups to say. I know that Cubans before the revolution were sometimes called, "the Jews of the Caribbean."

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