[Abood]

January 8, 2008

Palestinians and Israelis Favor Nonviolent Solutions

Israelis split on moral justification of military attacks on civilians
by Lydia Saad


This is the sixth installment in a series examining attitudes toward the peace process among Israelis and Palestinians.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The Israeli-Palestinian peace talks spawned by last year's peace conference in Annapolis, Md., are falling apart just as President George W. Bush prepares to arrive in Tel Aviv for a historic first visit of his presidency to the region. Many are already dismissing Bush's plan to help revive the talks as futile.

The alternative to Mideast peace is painfully evident in the renewal of violence already taking place. Israeli air strikes on Gaza City last week killed at least nine Palestinians, including four civilians. Israel says this was in response to recent Palestinian rocket attacks from Gaza into Israeli border towns.

The Gallup Poll suggests people on both sides reject such violence, finding a majority of Israelis and Palestinians saying they favor nonviolent forms of resistance and negotiation as the best approach to achieving self-determination and security. Only about a third in Israel, and slightly fewer in the Palestinian territories, favor "armed struggle" as the better solution.



This is consistent with Gallup's finding that most Israelis and Palestinians support the peace process. (See "Support for Peace Shifts Among Israelis, Palestinians" in Related Items.)

Still, according to this question, Israelis became more militant than they were prior to the election of Hamas in Palestine in January 2006 and the 2006 military conflict with the Hezbollah group in Lebanon. The percentage of Israelis favoring "armed struggle" doubled from 16% in January 2006 to 32% in July/August 2007. Over the same period, Palestinians became relatively more likely to favor nonviolence as the preferred means to self-determination and security.





In terms of the violence committed in the region, the major combatants are generally the Israeli military and various Palestinian militant groups -- such as the Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees that claimed joint responsibility for the recent rocket attack on Israel. Both sides use attacks on civilians to achieve their goals, whether through Israeli military air raids on Palestinian towns and villages to sweep out suspected militants, or through Palestinian suicide bombers blowing themselves up in Israeli shops and residential neighborhoods.

The peoples of both countries are in broad agreement that it is "never justified" for an individual person or small group of persons to target and kill civilians. Nearly three-quarters in Israel and an even higher percentage in the Palestinian territories take this view. That leaves only 22% in Israel and 14% in the Palestinian territories saying this type of violence is "sometimes justified" or that it "depends."



There is far less agreement among Israelis and Palestinians about the morality of military attacks on civilians. While the vast majority of Palestinians (86%) say it is never justified for the military to target and kill civilians, Israelis lean the other way: 52% say it is sometimes justified or depends, while 44% say it is never justified.



Bottom Line

The seemingly inevitable collapse of the post-Annapolis peace talks can only be seen as tragic in light of popular Israeli and Palestinian support for nonviolent solutions to the conflict. Both sides, but particularly the Palestinians, appear to reject the kind of violence against civilians that is often responsible for escalating the conflict. How long that can last isn't known, particularly with the support for nonviolent solutions in Israel possibly eroding.

Survey Methods

Results from Israel are based on face-to-face interviews conducted July 15-Aug. 6, 2007, with a randomly selected sample of 1,001 Israeli residents, aged 15 and older. For results based on the Israeli sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

Results from the Palestinian territories are based on face-to-face interviews conducted July 9-23, 2007, with a randomly selected sample of 1,000 Palestinian residents, aged 15 and older. For results based on the Palestinian sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Gallup.com


To summarize:

- The vast majority of both Israelis and Palestinians prefer peace over violence to achieve self-determination and security.
- Slightly more Israelis than Palestians favour violence.
- Palestinians favour non-violence more than Israelis.
- The overwhelming majority of Palestinians believe it is never justified for anyone to target and kill civilians.
- More than half of Israelis believe that it is sometimes justified for the military to target and kill civilians.

[War Angel]

Funky poll. I see little, if any correlation with reality. Sorry, Aboody, I know you tried.

And to further clarify:

To summarize:

- The vast majority of both Israelis and Palestinians prefer peace over violence to achieve self-determination and security.
- Slightly more Israelis than Palestians favour violence.
- Palestinians favour non-violence more than Israelis.
- The overwhelming majority of Palestinians believe it is never justified for anyone to target and kill civilians.
- More than half of Israelis believe that it is sometimes justified for the military to target and kill civilians.

1) I certainly hope so, though the vibes I'm getting are different.
3) Mmm-hmm, which is why they've never tried it.
4) Mmm-hmm, which is why they do it all the time, and elect terrorist organisations to do it.

[sword_or_quill]

Great post Abood. Good to see some hardcore statistics on the subject of how people in the Middle-East feel about certain issues.

It would be interesting to make further studies concerning what palestinians/israelis think about eg. a 2 state solution or settlements in the West Bank.

Interview-based studies do have a tendency to be biased towards a "positive" attitude (less people would perhaps admit that they in fact favour a military solution), but can definately be used to compare the general
opinion between populations.

And War angel:

Funky poll. I see little, if any correlation with reality. Sorry, Aboody, I know you tried.

Do you have any facts to support your claim?
Otherwise please find any, before presenting your own opinion as the "truth" on how palestinians and israelis feel.

Sorry "war angelly" - at least you should have tried...

[Abood]

War Angel, as it stands, your post is pure shit. "This is all wrong. Believe me, I live there." Essentially that's what it is. And that's supposed to refute Gallup polls? Yeh, right. At least try to provide some polls that support your stance in order to disguise your dogmatism, OK?

[Ter]

Thanks for posting this, Abood.
It kind of takes away much of the merit of what the "hawks" on both sides of the argument have been saying.

Ter

[Bosnjak]

Nice Post Abood,

Both nations are tired of war, according to conlfict analysts is this the point when the hostility Ends...

Israel should reopen the Trade for Gaza, Gaza could become a own Harbor controlled by UN, everything else leads to an enduring custody for Palestinians.

If they want to smuggle weapons they will allways found a way, because weapon trade is like drug trade nothing can stop it...

[Captain Sam]

Does it include Gaza or is it just the West Bank?
Isn't there a blockade on Gaza?

My guess is that it's a sample from the West Bank and excludes Gaza. The Fatah and Hamas are two entirely different organizations and both have very different supporters.

[kyleb]

Both have supporters in both portions of Palestine, having a blockade on Gaza doesn't stop pollers, and the study says it is based on a random sampling of Palestinians as a whole, which your guess contradicts.

Anyway, it only makes since that Israelis would favor violence and targeting civilians more as their vast military superiority keeps them on the winning end of the conflict by far.

[War Angel]

War Angel, as it stands, your post is pure shit. "This is all wrong. Believe me, I live there." Essentially that's what it is. And that's supposed to refute Gallup polls? Yeh, right. At least try to provide some polls that support your stance in order to disguise your dogmatism, OK?

I'll rephrase - there's a hefty, massive dissonance, according to this poll, between what people say and what they do. "We want a peaceful resolution" while shooting rockets and electing Hamas, or on the aggressive actions on Israeli side, don't really correlate.

If walk up to the average person and ask them straight-on if they believe in solving problems with violence, few would say "yes", but when confronted with said problem, many WOULD resort to violence. Words and actions... that was my point.

The questions are also distorted - who cares if it's an individual, a small organisation or friggin' aliens from space who target civilians? It's always wrong, except in total war (i.e, the Second World War).