[GandalfTheGrey]

ABC news just running the headline now - but so far no article.

But here is the context:

Victoria's Liberal Government is facing a new crisis, with controversial Frankston MP Geoff Shaw announcing he has quit the party.

Mr Shaw is under three separate investigations over misusing his taxpayer-funded car to help run his hardware business.

He has also been in trouble for making an obscene gesture in Parliament.

In a statement, Mr Shaw took a swipe at the Premier's leadership, saying the best way he can represent his constituents "at the moment" is from the cross benches.

"Labor left Victoria in a mess and Victorian's elected a Coalition Government to fix the problems and build for the future," he said.

"While the Government has made significant progress in that direction, I believe my actions reflect the general loss of confidence Victorians are feeling in the leadership of the Government."
Does this mean an early election?


Last year ABC election analyst Antony Green looked at whether Geoff Shaw could bring down the curtain on the Baillieu Government. Read his blog piece here.

The leader of the Government in the Upper House David Davis says it is too early to know whether Mr Shaw's move to the crossbenches will guarantee confidence and supply.

After an emergency party room meeting, Premier Ted Baillieu told the waiting media that Mr Shaw tendered his resignation by letter and did not give specific reasons for quitting.

Mr Baillieu said he has not spoken to him and does not know whether he will continue to support the Government.

The Coalition government is holding power by a slim majority until a by-election in the seat of Lyndhurst in April.

After that, Mr Shaw could hold the balance of power.

I believe my actions reflect the general loss of confidence Victorians are feeling in the leadership of the Government.
Geoff Shaw, MP for Frankston

Mr Baillieu said he "would rather not be in this situation," but will keep leading the state.

"I'm not going to get into details of what might or might not happen. What I can tell is you is we are committed," he said.

"We have a very strong forthcoming agenda and we have been able to govern with a narrow margin and I believe we can continue to govern and we will continue to govern.

"We will govern with decisiveness and with courage and that's what we have been doing and we will continue to do."

Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews says he wants to know what Mr Shaw's intentions are and does not intend to seek Mr Shaw's vote.

"How Mr Shaw votes is a matter for him," he said.

"Geoff Shaw has sacked Ted Baillieu."

He says the Premier is running an "absolute circus".

"What's very certain today is that this Government is in absolute crisis," Mr Andrews said.

"There is no-one in the Baillieu Government today thinking about jobs or hospitals or schools or transport.

"This is a Government that has stopped governing. It's lurching from one crisis to the next.

"That's not what Victorians vote for. It's not what Victoria needs. The Premier is not so much running a Government as running a complete and utter circus. It'd be funny if it weren't so serious."
Video: Frances Bell discusses the implications of Geoff Shaw's resignation (ABC News)

Mr Shaw was not in Parliament for question time.

When the Opposition accused the Premier of putting his majority ahead of his integrity, Speaker Ken Smith warned that questions about Mr Shaw were out of order because "it is not about government administration."

Mr Baillieu was asked if he had been given assurances of confidence from Mr Shaw.

"The floor of the house has already been tested since that announcement Mr Speaker and the Government secured a majority on the floor," he said.

Mr Baillieu is continuing to come under fire over his handling of the secret tape recordings involving his chief of staff.

His chief of staff Tony Nutt was secretly recorded in conversations with dumped police adviser Tristan Weston.

The recordings also allegedly reveal that Mr Nutt promised to help Mr Weston find another job after he was dumped as Mr Ryan's adviser.

Mr Baillieu says he knew nothing of the conversations and has referred the tapes to new anti-corruption body, IBAC.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-06/c ... ts/4555848

[pugsville]

Where collric and the rage over this Knife job?

the ALP does it and it makes Gillard Government illegitimate the libs do it and ............

[GandalfTheGrey]

but.. but.. it wasn't a knife job - honest! Denis told us so!!

[pugsville]

He resigned because he has had "lost the support of the party room" there is no difference between this and Rudd, so he resigned rather than face a challenge and lose. Same basic story. He chose tactically to resign rather than be ousted.

[GandalfTheGrey]

I loved federal libs script today - that "there is a world of difference" (everyone using those exact words) between this and what happened to Rudd

Of course its quite obvious it was the same thing as you say.

I just think the party handled this so badly. Pushing Baillieu out is itself not such a bad thing, but this ridiculous story of Denis sitting down to breakfast yesterday with the leadership - in his words - "the furthest thing from my mind" is just a joke. Then his media conference this morning was just agonizing as he attempted to stonewall. They will regret not being upfront from the start. Now just wait as the story will begin to unfold in the coming days and weeks - and it will just make the libs position untenable.

[colliric]

Where collric and the rage over this Knife job?

the ALP does it and it makes Gillard Government illegitimate the libs do it and ............

This was a one man campaign... Geoff Shaw is a fucken bastard.

Living in Victoria you'd realise he spent almost a year undermining Bailleu and other ministers confidence the government would see the full term through.

This wasn't because of the polls(we're almost 1.5 years out from an election), it was because Shaw thinks he's King of the world. So he's decided to hold the liberal party to ransom.

Geoff Shaw is as bad as Peter Slipper is

The ALP didn't do this under such conditions, they was only percieved poll pressure and it wasn't the work of one lone prick.

Changing leader now is not to try and save their skins "in the future"(unlike it was for Labor), it is a clear effort to avoid the disaster of an early election(we have a set election date in 2014 November) and remove his damn threat to hold fucken parliament hostage.

[colliric]

but.. but.. it wasn't a knife job - honest! Denis told us so!!

It was a lone gunman making threats and firing on his own from a book depository window, as opposed to the "Brutus and Friends" style that the labor party used.

"If you don't change leadership I'm going to piss everyone off with an early election" was the threat. Bailleu has sadly taken the only choice possible to avoid such a situation from occurring.

And as you can see Gandalf from your own article "Geoff Shaw has sacked Ted Ballieu", even Daniel Andrews believes it was a one man job.... Anyone who doesn't agree with him is obviously not from Victoria and doesn't realise this stupid one man threat to hold parliament to ransom, has hung around like a bad smell for around a year already.

[colliric]

He resigned because he has had "lost the support of the party room" there is no difference between this and Rudd, so he resigned rather than face a challenge and lose. Same basic story. He chose tactically to resign rather than be ousted.

Rudd was ousted because of the Polls predicting election disaster, Bailleu was facing down an early election because of one single rebellious fuckwit was gonna try force it on all Victorians.

The Party may have "decided" for him, but the prospects were exceptionally bleak anyway and likely he came to the same conclusion anyway, because as Andrews said he was effectively fired by an Asshole holding Parliament at election gunpoint.

[pugsville]

I dont agree with your explanation. It seems incredible. If this is true the Liberal Party is willing to be held to ransom by Shaw in this way they are weak kneed imbeciles who deserve to lose badly soon.

[colliric]

I dont agree with your explanation. It seems incredible. If this is true the Liberal Party is willing to be held to ransom by Shaw in this way they are weak kneed imbeciles who deserve to lose badly soon.

Thanks to Steve Bracks, they've got a year and a half left should Geoff be appeased by this "sacrifice".

It is incredible, hence Daniel Andrews called it an "Absolute Circus" and pointed out the bleeding obvious... Shaw practically overidded the democratic process and sacked the premier.

[Salohcin]

Rudd was ousted because of the Polls predicting election disaster, Bailleu was facing down an early election because of one single rebellious fuckwit was gonna try force it on all Victorians.

The Party may have "decided" for him, but the prospects were exceptionally bleak anyway and likely he came to the same conclusion anyway, because as Andrews said he was effectively fired by an Asshole holding Parliament at election gunpoint.

That's not really true. The polls still had Labor ahead when Rudd got stabbed. They had just changed from massively ahead to almost level.

Rudd got stabbed for reasons that were probably a mix of Gillard's ambition and Rudd being a jerk to other Labor ministers.

What is different, so far, is that Baillieu isn't immediately undermining his own party in search of revenge/another go at the top job.

[colliric]

What is different, so far, is that Baillieu isn't immediately undermining his own party in search of revenge/another go at the top job.

Jeff Kennett does that more than enough for everyone already with his constant stream of "if I was still Premier, this is what I'd do better" articles in the Herald Sun.... They don't need another grumpy ex at the moment, Bailleu is smart enough to realize that.

[pugsville]

This Scandal seems to be continuing another Liberal adviser fallen today, more leaked tapes, not much explanation from Napthine. Seems the LibNat coalition may be in real trouble over this, how the Nat leader , deputy Premier and former police Minister is in the gun big time. 1 rouge adviser maybe but 3?

Interference in the OPI inquiry, leaking of phone taps, hush money to former staff to keep quiet, these allegations which the tapes support, It's pretty serious stuff.

With both the OPI and IBAC without the power to investigate the government, there seems no way out than a Judaical inquiry.

[GandalfTheGrey]

Federal Labor is already expected to pick up seats in Victoria - bucking the national trend.

Shame Napthine and his clowns don't have any influence in western Sydney

[colliric]

Federal Labor is already expected to pick up seats in Victoria - bucking the national trend.

Shame Napthine and his clowns don't have any influence in western Sydney

If they are, it's news to me, because a recent Labor Party campaign strategy leaked that showed they listed several close labor seats that they thought were in crisis, including Mike Simon's seat of Deakin(which is where I live). So their own planning shows they don't believe that, as they are clearly expecting a swing against them... Unless you're saying they're expected to pick one or two up, while potentially losing 3 or 4, for an overall loss, but yet gaining 1 or two new seats.

Actually that does make a bit of sense considering they will pick back up the seat of Melbourne. Obviously that's one of the seats they're expecting to pick back up. Not sure how that could be percieved as bucking the national trend though becuase the Greens are facing electoral destruction everywhere if the previous few state elections, starting with Victoria in 2010, are anything to go by.

Point is Labor is possible to pick up 1 or 2 seats(inc Melbourne for certain), but still looks set to suffer a big swing. Some analysts are even saying house Speaker Anna Burke is going to struggle, which tells you how bad it's going to be, considering she's got a 5.5 percent margin.