[neopagan]

I can't say the tarnishing of Australia's image overseas would sway me in the side I took on a contentious issue. In this case the tarnish would be perceived by people I disagree with at the best of times.

It is unlikely that an Australian politician of any stripe is going to favour withdrawing from a UN convention when they might get the chance to go to New York and swan around in diplomatic circles. That is why the don't consult the electorate on UN matters.

[foxdemon]

"Those people won't be friends to us."

I disagree for several reasons. The most obvious is they are good old Catholics surrounded by Muslims. We (Australians) are the only friends they have unless you include Manila.

...

"The Indonesian government is easier to deal with." I disagree with this also.

The Australian led intervention in East Timor has proven to be a failure. ASEAN has rejected East Timor's application to join that organization. The reasons are that East Timor is unstable and they have failed to show any sign that they intend to develop their economy.


Australia tried to 'do the right thing' and has granted East Timor 90% of the oil royalties in the disputed NE maritime area. Australia could have taken East Timor to the International Court of Justice and Boarder Disputes. Given the edge of the continental shelf lies between the Australian claim and East Timor, the UNCLOS maritime boundary conventions would be in Australia's favour. Therefore it is likely that East Timor would lose their case. So we didn't have to share the oil. However the feeling was giving East Timor those rights to royalties would give them the income required to develop their economy. We also give them aid money in addition to this.



AS it happened, East Timor has been dominated by one faction, FRETILIN. They have excluded all others from government and the military. The money earned from the oil income goes into their coffers and funds the high living of the political elite and the military. The average people of East Timor remain subsistence farmers. There are a large number of refugees living on the boarder with Indonesia that have not been allowed to return after 14 years despite attempts by the UN, Australia and ASEAN to get FRETILIN to agree to resettling the refugees.


East Timor has international links. They are an ex-Portuguese colony and so are part of the Community of Portuguese language Countries (CPLP). They also have been fostering links with China. The later has built a nice lavish barracks and presidential palace for FRETILIN. And yet they continue to lobby the Australian government for more aid money.

At present FRETILIN is using their members in Australian universities to stir up support amongst Australian Catholics to pressure the government over the disputed boarder in an attempt to increase aid and renegotiate the oil agreement. Apparently a Portuguese oil company would like to take over the oil fields. FRETILIN are not our friends. They see us as an opportunity to be exploited.


So the local East Timors are no better off. The Refugee East Timors across the boarder are much worse off. The other resistance groups have been marginalized or destroyed. The Indonesians and Australians are worse off. Only FRETILIN has benefited from the intervention. In regard to our objective of assisting a free East Timor to progress as an independent country with a developing economy and responsible government, we have failed thanks to FRETILIN.


As I mentioned, ASEAN won't let them in and what I have explained is why. They don't want a basket case country ruled by tin pot dictators to have any say in their organization. It would have been better if we had not bothered to intervene in East Timor.





Any attempt to intervene in Irian Jaya will be strongly contested by the Indonesians. Apart from having a similar failed outcome as with East Timor, it will also be the beginning of centuries of military rivalry between Indonesia and Australia. This would be likely England and France developing eternal animosity through fighting the 100 years war. These wars are like scrambling eggs. Once scrambled you can't unscramble them. The wise nation avoids turning their neighbors into hostile rivals.


Why would we start a long period of wars with Indonesia when our national interests are not served by intervening in East Timor or Irian Jaya?

[neopagan]

Fretilin may not be the most desirable political party to run the East Timor Government, but they are not Muslims either. As to your suggestion of not "starting anything in West Papua, it has already started.

Java has no more legal claim to that territory than the Dutch did before them.

Your tone of appeasement toward the Indoes reminds me of Chamberlain's "peace in our time."

[foxdemon]

Fretilin may not be the most desirable political party to run the East Timor Government, but they are not Muslims either. As to your suggestion of not "starting anything in West Papua, it has already started.

Indeed it has started.

Indonesian authorities warn Australian 'Freedom Flotilla' not to enter Papua region by boat
By Indonesia correspondent George Roberts, ABC Updated August 16, 2013, 7:26 pm

Indonesian police say that a group of Australian activists who are planning to enter the disputed Papua region by boat will be detained and possibly arrested.

The group of Australian and West Papuan activists plan to set sail from Cairns tomorrow in three boats, calling themselves the "Freedom Flotilla".

Deputy chief of Papuan police Paulus Waterpauw says unauthorised boat arrivals will be intercepted by the navy and probably detained by immigration authorities.

Mr Waterpauw says anybody in the group who has a criminal record, or is on the country's wanted list, will face arrest.

Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has also issued a strong warning to other countries, saying they should not violate Indonesia's sovereignty.

Mr Yudhoyono reasserted that the Papuan provinces were an inseparable part of Indonesia.

He says the Papuan provinces are part of Indonesia and that should be respected.

Indonesian foreign minister Marty Natelegawa has dismissed the planned voyage.

"Yet another one of those cheap publicity stunt[s]," he said.
Mr Natelegawa says Indonesia has been in contact with Australia but has not asked it to prevent the boats from leaving.

Java has no more legal claim to that territory than the Dutch did before them.

Your tone of appeasement toward the Indoes reminds me of Chamberlain's "peace in our time."

Chamberlain was trying to avoid an aggressive expansionist regime. Indonesia does not fit the description. The situation is not the same.

It would be extremely foolish to start a history of conflict with our largest neighbour, especially since no national interest is being served.