neopagan wrote:
"Those people won't be friends to us."
I disagree for several reasons. The most obvious is they are good old Catholics surrounded by Muslims. We (Australians) are the only friends they have unless you include Manila.
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"The Indonesian government is easier to deal with." I disagree with this also.
The Australian led intervention in East Timor has proven to be a failure. ASEAN has rejected East Timor's application to join that organization. The reasons are that East Timor is unstable and they have failed to show any sign that they intend to develop their economy.
Australia tried to 'do the right thing' and has granted East Timor 90% of the oil royalties in the disputed NE maritime area. Australia could have taken East Timor to the International Court of Justice and Boarder Disputes. Given the edge of the continental shelf lies between the Australian claim and East Timor, the UNCLOS maritime boundary conventions would be in Australia's favour. Therefore it is likely that East Timor would lose their case. So we didn't have to share the oil. However the feeling was giving East Timor those rights to royalties would give them the income required to develop their economy. We also give them aid money in addition to this.
AS it happened, East Timor has been dominated by one faction, FRETILIN. They have excluded all others from government and the military. The money earned from the oil income goes into their coffers and funds the high living of the political elite and the military. The average people of East Timor remain subsistence farmers. There are a large number of refugees living on the boarder with Indonesia that have not been allowed to return after 14 years despite attempts by the UN, Australia and ASEAN to get FRETILIN to agree to resettling the refugees.
East Timor has international links. They are an ex-Portuguese colony and so are part of the Community of Portuguese language Countries (CPLP). They also have been fostering links with China. The later has built a nice lavish barracks and presidential palace for FRETILIN. And yet they continue to lobby the Australian government for more aid money.
At present FRETILIN is using their members in Australian universities to stir up support amongst Australian Catholics to pressure the government over the disputed boarder in an attempt to increase aid and renegotiate the oil agreement. Apparently a Portuguese oil company would like to take over the oil fields.
FRETILIN are not our friends. They see us as an opportunity to be exploited.So the local East Timors are no better off. The Refugee East Timors across the boarder are much worse off. The other resistance groups have been marginalized or destroyed. The Indonesians and Australians are worse off. Only FRETILIN has benefited from the intervention. In regard to our objective of assisting a free East Timor to progress as an independent country with a developing economy and responsible government, we have failed thanks to FRETILIN.
As I mentioned, ASEAN won't let them in and what I have explained is why. They don't want a basket case country ruled by tin pot dictators to have any say in their organization. It would have been better if we had not bothered to intervene in East Timor.
Any attempt to intervene in Irian Jaya will be strongly contested by the Indonesians. Apart from having a similar failed outcome as with East Timor, it will also be the beginning of centuries of military rivalry between Indonesia and Australia. This would be likely England and France developing eternal animosity through fighting the 100 years war. These wars are like scrambling eggs. Once scrambled you can't unscramble them. The wise nation avoids turning their neighbors into hostile rivals.
Why would we start a long period of wars with Indonesia when our national interests are not served by intervening in East Timor or Irian Jaya?