[GandalfTheGrey]

So, its on again it seems. Will this be third time lucky for Rudd?

Normally it would seem a done deal according to what Barry Cassidy says below, but after what happened last time, I'm not ruling anything out. I think there is still a very good chance they will stick with Gillard, and near certain electoral anhialiation.

Does labor think it is worth bringing back the hated Rudd just to make the election a bit closer. They will still lose, I'm fairly certain of that. And I'm not even convinced the defeat will be much prettier with Kevin. The coalition will be sure to run the "dysfunctional government" line on turbo, and they no doubt have collected a lot of dirt on Kevin already.

Below are two slightly different impressions - Barrie Cassidy seems to think it is a sure thing, Leigh Sales maintaining it is still very much up in the air.

Thoughts?

Is Gillard's number up?
By ABC's Barrie Cassidy

Updated Mon Jun 10, 2013 3:41pm AEST
The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, has lost significant support in the caucus. Photo: The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, has lost significant support in the caucus. (AAP: Damian Shaw)

Significant support has shifted against Prime Minister Gillard, with little chance she will lead Labor to the next election, writes Barrie Cassidy.

The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, has lost significant support in the caucus, with key players now planning when and how she should be approached to step aside.

Those who have changed their thinking are convinced that in any case, she must be close to deciding for herself that continuing on through a torrid and hopeless ten-week campaign is intolerable.

She must by now, they argue, have gone through all five stages of grief.

The first and second stages, anger and depression, will surely have been experienced many times in the past, and still ignite when events present themselves within in her own ranks and within the media.

The third is bargaining, and she has done lots of that, doing deals with interest groups, rallying the troops behind her as Kevin Rudd advanced, and putting together solid and popular policy initiatives, like the NDIS and education reform.

In the end, it was the kind of furious bargaining that might have worked in ordinary times, but seems to have been inadequate in the tough days of minority government.

The fourth stage is denial and isolation. Given the appalling ill discipline on display from the team behind her in the last parliamentary sitting week, that stage has probably now come and gone.

The fifth and final stage, the big one, is acceptance. Does she yet accept that she can no longer head up a united party and bring out the best in the team in the critical weeks ahead? And only the best will head off a rout.

The view of some former staunch supporters is that not only can she not win the election, but she almost certainly cannot lift the primary vote from where it now sits.

The only option, if Gillard decides to step down, is former leader, Kevin Rudd. No thought is being given to anybody else.

It galls many in the Labor Party that the leadership could return to Rudd. The reasons they moved so overwhelmingly against him in the first place are well documented and, on the evidence, haven't changed. In fact the leaks that derailed majority government for Gillard in 2010 only stiffened their resolve.

Some caucus members are convinced that Rudd personally leaked, if not to Laurie Oakes, then certainly to Peter Hartcher.

Imagine then, if that is their firmly held belief, how that must rankle with them; the prospect that one of their own would leak against them in the middle of an election campaign, with the intent of causing the party to lose?

But politics is not just nasty, it's pragmatic as well.

Since March, Gillard has had the clear air she needed and demanded to promote the NDIS, the economy and education reform, and all to no avail.

Rudd has again demonstrated just how effective he can be on the campaign trail, and he will go on doing that around the country.

He does in all the circumstances represent the better chance for Labor to maximise its return in seat numbers.

The intriguing element now is that it might favour Bill Shorten if Rudd was to take back the leadership.

Shorten is the most likely leader in opposition. It would not escape his thinking that Rudd would deliver a better base from which to launch an attack on Tony Abbott at the election after next.

And presumably, if Rudd was to lose, the caucus would judge that at least he was eventually given his chance, that he fell short and therefore should depart the scene for good. A line could then be drawn under both Gillard and Rudd.

And it would at least put an end to the otherwise unanswerable query: would they have won under Rudd? If Rudd does not lead, his supporters will argue forever that, given the chance, he would have won.

If Rudd does not get to lead between now and the election, he will stay around in opposition afterwards and present as the same threat to Shorten, or whoever leads the party, as he has been to Gillard. He would be the same distraction, the same lightning rod for dissatisfaction and instability.

There is one significant strategic advantage that falls to Labor if Rudd leads. Gillard's pledge to go to an election on September 14 would no longer be valid. Rudd could take advantage of the obvious honeymoon, catch the Coalition with its pants down, and go as early as Saturday, August 10.

It might not create panic in Coalition ranks, but it would be unsettling. Every issue that now seems to go nowhere, will be debated afresh.

A whole new ball game would be underway with every previous assumption made redundant.

Barrie Cassidy is the presenter of ABC programs Insiders and Offsiders. View his full profile here.

Editor's Note: Comments to this story were reopened at 6am Monday June 10.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-09/c ... rd/4742634

The ten questions Labor MPs are asking themselves
By ABC's Leigh Sales

Posted Mon Jun 10, 2013 6:12pm AEST
Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd sit on the front bench Photo: Labor MPs are actively considering whether they should replace Prime Minister Julia Gillard with her predecessor Kevin Rudd. (Alan Porritt, file photo: AAP)

Federal Labor MPs are asking serious and pointed questions about what a change of leadership would deliver at this stage. A lot depends on how the Prime Minister herself chooses to play things over the coming weeks, writes Leigh Sales.

Fact: Labor MPs are actively considering whether they should replace Prime Minister Julia Gillard with her predecessor Kevin Rudd.

Fiction: It’s a done deal.

It’s not. Instead, Labor MPs are doing some grave soul-searching about their best course of action. They are asking serious and pointed questions about what a change of leadership would deliver at this stage. And a lot depends on how the Prime Minister herself chooses to play things over the coming weeks.

As we already know, the mood in the caucus is despondent. There’s a widely-held view - even among her supporters - that Julia Gillard is unlikely to win the election. But at the time of writing, there is no clear strategy for her removal given that she doesn’t wish to fall on her sword. MPs are also wondering very specifically what the party would gain by returning to Kevin Rudd. That is impossible to measure before taking the leap and so MPs are privately weighing the prospect carefully.

These are the 10 questions Labor politicians are asking themselves as they ponder the merits of switching Prime Ministers for a second time:

1. Can I save my own seat?

Instead of asking “Would a change of leader win us the election?” many MPs are asking “Would a change of leader save my parliamentary career?” Kevin Rudd is significantly more popular with voters than Julia Gillard (and for that matter, Tony Abbott). If a Rudd return carved even two to three per cent off any swing against Labor, it would save some key seats.

2. Will Kevin Rudd’s poll numbers remain as high if he returns to the leadership?

In the past few months, various polls have shown Rudd is twice as popular as Gillard with voters and that he would add 10 per cent or more to Labor’s primary vote. But there’s no way of knowing in what direction those numbers would go if Rudd were back in the hot seat. Will voters like Kevin Rudd more or less once he’s back on the TV news every night? There’s no way for Labor apparatchiks to test the waters on this without returning Rudd to the job. What if caucus reinstates him only to see his numbers drop almost immediately?

3. Why will changing leaders again work for Labor federally when it didn’t work in NSW?

In New South Wales, Labor tried Morris Iemma, Nathan Rees and finally Kristina Keneally. None of it made any difference to the annihilation in 2011. In 2010, when federal Labor dumped Rudd, internal polling showed the move would win votes. On election day, the opposite happened. Is going to the polls with Rudd or Gillard going to end up much of a muchness?

4. Does Kevin Rudd deserve a second chance to lead the nation?

There is still a huge amount of contempt for Rudd among his own colleagues. They disliked him as Prime Minister and their loathing has become even more pronounced at the way he has handled himself since. There is a view among a substantial proportion of the caucus that Rudd is a disloyal white-anter. His conduct over the past week - starting with his interview on 7.30 and followed by his campaigning in Geelong - has pushed the buttons of those in the party who don’t approve of his style. Even his supporters were unimpressed with how he handled the abortive Simon Crean-instigated spill. Labor insiders are asking themselves does this guy deserve to be rewarded with a return to The Lodge?

5. If Rudd is reinstated, what happens to the front bench?

Presumably Wayne Swan has to go, along with several other high-profile ministers. Will Labor be able to present a united front for the election or will the same divisions remain as long as either Rudd or Gillard is in the top job? Will the anti-Rudd brigade undermine the leadership team in the same way the anti-Gillard crew has been accused of doing? How will Gillard herself behave if she is tapped on the shoulder by a group of senior party figures?

6. What happens to the September 14 election date?

A freshly-instated Rudd has several options available to him. He could stay with September 14. He could take it off the table to reclaim the element of surprise. He could call a snap election. Or he could delay going to the ballot box until as late as possible. But his own control over the election date could also slip if the independents withdrew their support from the minority Labor government. Is a fixed date with Gillard better than an imminent election with Rudd forced by Tony Windsor?

7. Is the party ready to go to an election with a different leader?

What would a Rudd campaign look like? All advertising and campaign material would have to be redesigned. And what would be the central message? Anybody but Abbott? Does that float? Furthermore, the policies Labor has been planning to campaign on - NDIS and Gonski - are signature Gillard initiatives. What does Rudd have in the kit bag, especially on asylum seekers?

8. How would a Rudd versus Abbott contest shape up?

Given the Labor shenanigans over the leadership, Tony Abbott would undoubtedly run the powerful argument that Labor cannot be trusted to manage the country because it can’t manage its own party. A return to Rudd would only give the Coalition leaders more ammunition to argue that they’re the adults in the room and deserve to be in charge. Presumably the Liberals have workshopped their campaign against both Gillard and Rudd. They have damning material to use against Rudd - from the mouths of people on his own side. The question is whether Rudd could successfully make Abbott look less than Prime Ministerial.

9. What would Labor look like in Opposition?

Given the pessimism about the election outcome, there is some thought going into what Labor would look like in Opposition and what would best help make the ALP competitive for the election after this one. Can Rudd help the party hold enough heartland seats that the next election is not an insurmountable mountain, even if Abbott’s first term is rocky? Will Rudd keep some of Labor’s potential future leaders in the Parliament, people like Chris Bowen and Jason Clare? On the flipside, is it worth sticking with Gillard to minimise any damage to people like Bill Shorten who may be tarred by association with another leadership change?

10. Does it even matter at this stage?

Is it best to just wait until after the election and then draw a line under the whole Rudd/Gillard era once and for all? Sure, the rebuild would likely start from a low base but by necessity, it would force the party to rethink its raison d’etre, in a way what some party elders have urged for a long time.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-10/s ... ns/4744564

[AVT]

I am thinking along your lines Gandalf, it is still very much up in the air and that Rudd returning will not necessarily translate into the election gains polling suggests, as it fails to take into account the effect of coalition attacks on Labor's credibility following another leadership change. To me this is a pivotal point for the party, they dumped Rudd because of bad polling figures (well also he is hard to work with) and if they do so again they will prove they have learnt nothing.

I really feel for Gillard, not that I like her, but I believe for a healthy democracy there must be a real contest, unfortunately her own worst enemy has been her fellow party members and they have already thrown in the towel.

[GandalfTheGrey]

they dumped Rudd because of bad polling figures (well also he is hard to work with) and if they do so again they will prove they have learnt nothing.

Yes, except for two important considerations:

1. If Gillard goes, so too will be most of the baggage that is plaguing Labor's current polling fortunes - things like the carbon tax "lie", the boats fiasco and the surplus promise. Rudd can claim to have nothing to do with that (although his own boats policy were a fiasco, but no one will remember that), and be seen to represent a fresh start.

2. Every leader gets a honeymoon period when they take the job - I can't think of any exceptions (even Alexander Downer, believe it or not). Whatever Rudd does, he will almost certainly be still riding on this at the time of the election. This factor alone should give labor some boost in the election. In fact, the nature of this particular tussle between Gillard and Rudd leads me to believe that Rudd's honeymoon could be even better than most.

[Bounce]

The adoption of Rudd has to happen far enough away from the election date for him to distance himself from Gillard and Abbot. Yet soon enough that people aren't reminded why they began to dislike him.


What ever happens, I can't imagine either of them being anywhere near the leadership of the party after this election (which they'll loose regardless).

[GandalfTheGrey]

Gillard will retire from politics after this election - irrespective of the panic statement she released a couple of weeks ago.

Rudd will no doubt think that he will be the man to rise labor out of the ashes, but I don't think he will get far. Its likely he will never lead labor again, though he is committed to another term. So expect more of these shenanigans next term.

[Rojik of the Arctic]

I doubt it will happen, but should Krudd topple Gillard and receive said honeymoon period would that make a Turnbull challenge on Abbott conceivable?

[AVT]

I do not see why people are so romantic about Turnbull and Rudd, they both had a shot and were proven to be bad leaders, hence why their own members voted them out. I understand Turnbull is more acceptable because of he is a centrist, but he was also prone to gaffes that make even Abbott look good.

It is true new leadesr normally get a honeymoon period, but lets not forget Rudd is not a new leader, I am unsure if his return would guarantee Labor a grace period like they could expect with any othercandidate.

To me Shorten or Combet is the likely replacement for Gillard (if Rudd doesn't roll her) after the election, going back to Rudd would only ensure Labor is doomed to repeat political infighting, of course though it will depend on what few members of Labor actually survive. Rudd has always seen himself as the messiah of Labor, as the days go by I am more and more convinced he is actually looking forward to the parties annihilation so he once more try and fulfill his own imagined role.

[Rojik of the Arctic]

I do not see why people are so romantic about Turnbull and Rudd, they both had a shot and were proven to be bad leaders, hence why their own members voted them out. I understand Turnbull is more acceptable because of he is a centrist, but he was also prone to gaffes that make even Abbott look good.

I wouldn't vote for a Rudd led party even at gunpoint. Turnbull interests me only in that he isn't Abbott (who I also would not vote for no matter the provocation).

What happens to the ALP, and who leads them, interests me not, as long as they lose power. What happens to the Libs is a little more interesting because their leader will be the PM by Christmas, and I'd rather almost anything than an Abbott / Pyne led government - except more of the ALP.

[colliric]

Turnbull doesn't want the Leadership, he's quite content with his role in making the NBN look like another Labor disaster waiting to happen. He clearly desires the role of being in charge of the inevitable broadband network redesign and leave some sort of permanent legacy there, just like he did with the Fluorescent globes scheme. That should have been pretty obvious to anyone who saw Monday nights Q & A.

Also he appears to be planning to push for another referendum on the Republic issue after Prince Charles becomes King.

It was interesting to see Mark Latham admit Howard "was right and I was wrong". Too bad the current leader won't do the same.

[GandalfTheGrey]

I get the feeling Turnbull's happy basking in his "wise statesman" role, without having the scrutiny that comes with leadership. That way he can do his regular Q&A routine and appear all wise and principled, and not really have to worry too much about towing the party line. Its likely the whole utegate humiliation turned him off the leadership for good.

[Ahovking]

I do not see why people are so romantic about Turnbull and Rudd, they both had a shot and were proven to be bad leaders,

Bad Leaders? No, hard to almost imposable to work with? Yes.

Rudd has proven himself to be a strong leader, leading international meeting from global warming to economics, his white paper was the first white paper that understood if we were to stay with the americans alliance we would have to rebuild our military to enable us to defend our trade route and support for larger military operations over seas, etc. Gillard effective killed Rudds white paper and our defence force is now as worst off and unprepared as they were in 1930.

Rudd has also analogue that no one is perfect and he had made mistake, if he got in again, he would be mad not to tred softly.

The only chance lobor to win is by getting Rudd Back but will that happen? No. Labor will lose this up and coming election guaranteed.