[Puffer Fish]

"
The Wall Street Journal ran a story on May 26, 2023, noting that 'The U.S. birth rate is down sharply from 15 years ago, as women report that economic and social obstacles are causing them to have fewer children than they want.'

The reasons cited in the piece focused on the material: the inability to afford a house while repaying student loans, men lacking earning power compared to the female cohort, and women being better educated than men.

The article cited President Joe Biden as proposing paid family leave, subsidized child care, and federally funded preschool as ways to convince people to have more children.​
"

Some thoughts:

If the real reason people cannot afford housing now is student loan debt, whereas the previous generation could afford housing in the past, then that suggests more student loan borrowing may not have been such a good idea, doesn't it?

I also think providing free child care or preschools is a terrible idea that doesn't really make logical sense. Why not rather just pay women to take care of their own children? That might make more sense and be more economically efficient. It doesn't really make sense to be paying for someone else to look after the child when the cost of daycare is nearly as high as what that mother would earn if she were working. That would be an economic malincentive (or in more typical economics terminology, a 'perverse incentive').

The article continues:
"
Yet looking to the states, there are massive differences in the birth rate among women 15 to 44 years in 2021. Women in No. 1 South Dakota bore almost 53% more babies per capita than their peers in last place Vermont.

A national ranking of child care that compares cost as a share of income, availability and quality finds a modestly negative correlation to child care: of the seven states with the lowest natality, six of them are in the top 10 best states for child care.

There are three factors that statistically predict higher birth rates: a state’s cost of living (a lower cost of living associated with a higher birth rate); the share of residents who seldom or never attend religious services (with a lower connection to organized religion associated with lower birth rates); and the 2020 vote for Joe Biden (with states that gave Biden the largest share having the lowest birth rates). Of all the factors, the vote for Biden was the strongest predictor of a low birth rate.​
"
The American birth rate is plummeting, but not in some states, Chuck DeVore, Fox News
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/america ... ome-states


related thread: "Are Millennials screwed?" (2 Dec 2022)
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=183004


Remember, the younger generation is where babies come from in society, so if the younger adult generation is financially struggling and not having children then the birth rates for the society as a whole will be down by almost the same amount.
(those in the age range over 40 do not tend to have children very often)
This will undoubtedly have long-term ramifications for the future.

This is a phenomena that has been going on for some time now, but has only accelerated in recent years.
(I'd say it started in 2005, grew obvious in the aftermath of the 2007 Recession, then only picked up even more with the "Coronavirus pandemic" of 2020 to 2021, if we want to try to assign some specific time points)

[Puffer Fish]

"the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has slipped below the 2.1 children per mother threshold regarded as the 'replacement level.'"
"Millennials say no to kids, population 'replacement level' turns negative", by Paul Bedard, article from the Washington Examiner, November 15, 2017 :
"
America is in a 'baby bust', driven by millennials who are having kids at record low rates, according to a new report that warns America is no longer making enough babies to keep pace with deaths. While moms need to have 2.1 births to keep pace with deaths, a number last hit in 2010, it has dropped dramatically to just 1.8, according to a report from the Negative Population Growth Inc., which cheers negative growth.
The fertility rate decline is driven entirely by millennial mothers in their teens and twenties, said the report. Birth rates for all age groups of women under 30 fell to record lows in 2016.​
"

[Godstud]

Americans can't afford to have children because the little buggers expect to be fed and clothed, and later you might need to provide them with education. You might have to spend some time with them, as well. Who has time for that when you're working 2 jobs to get by?


Also, more and more people are identifying as women, so the population of men is declining rapidly.

[Unthinking Majority]

Economics is a factor, but people used to have lots of kids and were much poorer, so there's other factors at play.

[Puffer Fish]

Economics is a factor, but people used to have lots of kids and were much poorer, so there's other factors at play.

That's true. There is the issue of culture.
And also something referred to as "opportunity costs".

In more urban areas, the difference between living standards when having children versus not having children is much more different than in rural areas.
In rural areas, there is plenty of space but very limited work opportunity. In urban areas, there is an opportunity to earn money if you go to work and do not have to look after children, but it is very expensive to be able to afford space for both living and having children.

In areas where people had lots of children, they may have been poor, but they did not experience so much "punishment" in terms of economic costs for having many children.