- 05 Jun 2023 22:03
#15275990
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The Wall Street Journal ran a story on May 26, 2023, noting that 'The U.S. birth rate is down sharply from 15 years ago, as women report that economic and social obstacles are causing them to have fewer children than they want.'
The reasons cited in the piece focused on the material: the inability to afford a house while repaying student loans, men lacking earning power compared to the female cohort, and women being better educated than men.
The article cited President Joe Biden as proposing paid family leave, subsidized child care, and federally funded preschool as ways to convince people to have more children.
"
Some thoughts:
If the real reason people cannot afford housing now is student loan debt, whereas the previous generation could afford housing in the past, then that suggests more student loan borrowing may not have been such a good idea, doesn't it?
I also think providing free child care or preschools is a terrible idea that doesn't really make logical sense. Why not rather just pay women to take care of their own children? That might make more sense and be more economically efficient. It doesn't really make sense to be paying for someone else to look after the child when the cost of daycare is nearly as high as what that mother would earn if she were working. That would be an economic malincentive (or in more typical economics terminology, a 'perverse incentive').
The article continues:
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Yet looking to the states, there are massive differences in the birth rate among women 15 to 44 years in 2021. Women in No. 1 South Dakota bore almost 53% more babies per capita than their peers in last place Vermont.
A national ranking of child care that compares cost as a share of income, availability and quality finds a modestly negative correlation to child care: of the seven states with the lowest natality, six of them are in the top 10 best states for child care.
There are three factors that statistically predict higher birth rates: a state’s cost of living (a lower cost of living associated with a higher birth rate); the share of residents who seldom or never attend religious services (with a lower connection to organized religion associated with lower birth rates); and the 2020 vote for Joe Biden (with states that gave Biden the largest share having the lowest birth rates). Of all the factors, the vote for Biden was the strongest predictor of a low birth rate.
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The American birth rate is plummeting, but not in some states, Chuck DeVore, Fox News
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/america ... ome-states
related thread: "Are Millennials screwed?" (2 Dec 2022)
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=183004
Remember, the younger generation is where babies come from in society, so if the younger adult generation is financially struggling and not having children then the birth rates for the society as a whole will be down by almost the same amount.
(those in the age range over 40 do not tend to have children very often)
This will undoubtedly have long-term ramifications for the future.
This is a phenomena that has been going on for some time now, but has only accelerated in recent years.
(I'd say it started in 2005, grew obvious in the aftermath of the 2007 Recession, then only picked up even more with the "Coronavirus pandemic" of 2020 to 2021, if we want to try to assign some specific time points)
The Wall Street Journal ran a story on May 26, 2023, noting that 'The U.S. birth rate is down sharply from 15 years ago, as women report that economic and social obstacles are causing them to have fewer children than they want.'
The reasons cited in the piece focused on the material: the inability to afford a house while repaying student loans, men lacking earning power compared to the female cohort, and women being better educated than men.
The article cited President Joe Biden as proposing paid family leave, subsidized child care, and federally funded preschool as ways to convince people to have more children.
"
Some thoughts:
If the real reason people cannot afford housing now is student loan debt, whereas the previous generation could afford housing in the past, then that suggests more student loan borrowing may not have been such a good idea, doesn't it?
I also think providing free child care or preschools is a terrible idea that doesn't really make logical sense. Why not rather just pay women to take care of their own children? That might make more sense and be more economically efficient. It doesn't really make sense to be paying for someone else to look after the child when the cost of daycare is nearly as high as what that mother would earn if she were working. That would be an economic malincentive (or in more typical economics terminology, a 'perverse incentive').
The article continues:
"
Yet looking to the states, there are massive differences in the birth rate among women 15 to 44 years in 2021. Women in No. 1 South Dakota bore almost 53% more babies per capita than their peers in last place Vermont.
A national ranking of child care that compares cost as a share of income, availability and quality finds a modestly negative correlation to child care: of the seven states with the lowest natality, six of them are in the top 10 best states for child care.
There are three factors that statistically predict higher birth rates: a state’s cost of living (a lower cost of living associated with a higher birth rate); the share of residents who seldom or never attend religious services (with a lower connection to organized religion associated with lower birth rates); and the 2020 vote for Joe Biden (with states that gave Biden the largest share having the lowest birth rates). Of all the factors, the vote for Biden was the strongest predictor of a low birth rate.
"
The American birth rate is plummeting, but not in some states, Chuck DeVore, Fox News
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/america ... ome-states
related thread: "Are Millennials screwed?" (2 Dec 2022)
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=183004
Remember, the younger generation is where babies come from in society, so if the younger adult generation is financially struggling and not having children then the birth rates for the society as a whole will be down by almost the same amount.
(those in the age range over 40 do not tend to have children very often)
This will undoubtedly have long-term ramifications for the future.
This is a phenomena that has been going on for some time now, but has only accelerated in recent years.
(I'd say it started in 2005, grew obvious in the aftermath of the 2007 Recession, then only picked up even more with the "Coronavirus pandemic" of 2020 to 2021, if we want to try to assign some specific time points)