UK votes to exit EU - Page 16 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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User avatar
By killim
#14696799
Rugoz you seem to misunderstand the simple fact that bigger in this case means more expensive for the UK, because they entry fee is related to the GDP. Far more important Switzerland and Norway had decades to establish their deals. The UK has neither the time nor a comparable bargaining position, because they would fall back on WTO treaty level. Concerning the Swiss deal which is mostly frozen on 1997 levels (which is of course not possible anymore). Far more important I would reccommend a closer look at the Swiss treaty. It includes free movement of all EU citizens and it means that the broad majority of the Swiss regulations are made in Brussel without any Swiss influence (!). Then there is the pressure on the financial sector in Switzerland, which can be expected both for the City and the tax paradises like the Channel Islands or Virgin Islands etc.

Concerning the trade agreements:
https://www.nibusinessinfo.co.uk/conten ... -relations
There have been recent bilateral government discussions between the UK and Australia, New Zealand, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Korea.

US, Canada and Mexico. The UK has bilateral trade relations with all three countries individually...

and so on.

Oh, but wait: http://shanghaiist.com/2016/06/24/china ... sponse.php
They should have looked into this short profile: http://news.cbi.org.uk/business-issues/ ... deals-pdf/
User avatar
By Rugoz
#14696802
noemon wrote:You claim that it will depend on the deal, and now you say "obviously"? The point is that you pretend there is a possibility of the UK getting a free trade deal with the EU that will allow it to disregard EU laws and regulations, that is impossible so you should stop pretending that it is not especially when you admit that it obviously is.


If an US firm exports to the EU it must also follow EU law and regulation. That's obvious. If the UK adopts EU law domestically it reduces cost for UK firms, because then they only have to produce for one standard. That's why Switzerland adopts EU standards, because the Swiss market is small and it would be costly to comply with Swiss and EU standards if they are different. However lots of EU law is not being adopted.

noemon wrote:judging from the deals the Swiss get in China, then it does not look that bright for them


Its still a better deal than what the EU has.

An entity like the EU has more negotiating power, however smaller countries can negotiate deals that are tailor-made for the national economy. In the EU 28 countries must agree.
User avatar
By noemon
#14696805
An entity like the EU has more negotiating power, however smaller countries can negotiate deals that are tailor-made for the national economy.


Like allowing China to trade in your country without tariffs but your country being subject to tariffs in China? These tailor-made deals?
User avatar
By Rugoz
#14696810
noemon wrote:Like allowing China to trade in your country without tariffs but your country being subject to tariffs in China? These tailor-made deals?


The Swiss-China free trade deal is generally being seen as very positive.

The EU has no free trade deal with China, only 3 OECD countries have.

@killim

It even says here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_free_trade

that the UK cannot have free trade deals with commonwealth countries outside the EU. Your source is not useful, it vaguely mentions trade relations, whatever that means.
Last edited by Rugoz on 28 Jun 2016 22:38, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
By noemon
#14696814
Because the EU has not wished it so, allowing Chinese products free-market access in your economy is too big a step for many to make and understandably so.

I do not how it is positive for China to have free-access in your market, but you not having free-market access in their market is positive, but I guess this is one of those things that we can agree to disagree.
User avatar
By Rugoz
#14696816
noemon wrote:Because the EU has not wished it so, allowing Chinese products free-market access in your economy is too big a step for many to make and understandably so.

I do not how it is positive for China to have free-access in your market, but you not having free-market access in their market is positive, but I guess this is one of those things that we can agree to disagree.


Well its not true that China does not reduce its tariffs.
User avatar
By noemon
#14696819
After 15 years while she has instant free access in the Swiss market. And you are ignoring all these EU trade deals that the UK needs to renegotiate with third-countries and the points killim mentioned. I do not see what exactly is your point here, that Britain is better off renegotiating everything from scratch and that it is going to negotiate it better somehow?
User avatar
By Rugoz
#14696826
noemon wrote:After 15 years while she has instant free access in the Swiss market. And you are ignoring all these EU trade deals that the UK needs to renegotiate with third-countries and the points killim mentioned. I do not see what exactly is your point here, that Britain is better off renegotiating everything from scratch and that it is going to negotiate it better somehow?


- Wrong. It depends on the goods. On some goods tariffs are eliminated right away and on others after 5, 10, 12, 15 years.

- The UK would have to do a lot of negotiating, but I suppose there would be intermediate solutions, like copying EU-negotiated deals. I frankly don't know but neither do you. What I see however is lots of hyperbole and FUD everywhere.
User avatar
By noemon
#14696830
Wrong. It depends on the goods. On some goods tariffs are eliminated right away and on others after 5, 10, 12, 15 years.


However you sugarcoat it, you are not equal partners, they get instant access in your market, you get to wait on the whims of the Chinese government to phase tarrifs off within a 15 year period.

What I see however is lots of hyperbole and FUD everywhere.


What hyperbole? It is a hyperbole indeed ignoring the facts. You are claiming that Britain will somehow gain larger and better global access to the markets in the world on its own, when we both know it's actually bollocks. It will take Britain decades just to return to the market access it currently enjoys, if it manages to get such sweet deals, which will depend largely on the EU and its kindness.

like copying EU-negotiated deals.


Subject to the momentary interests of all these countries and their relationships with the EU as well as the stance of the EU in those countries. ;)
User avatar
By Rugoz
#14696838
noemon wrote:However you sugarcoat it, you are not equal partners, they get instant access in your market, you get to wait on the whims of the Chinese government to phase tarrifs off within a 15 year period.


So what, that doesn't mean its a bad deal for us given the export-orientation of the economy. And whether the EU would get a better deal given how China protects its industry is questionable. Point is, in this case its positive for us to be outside of the EU.

noemon wrote:What hyperbole? It is a hyperbole indeed ignoring the facts. You are claiming that Britain will somehow gain larger and better global access to the markets in the world on its own, when we both know it's actually bollocks. It will take Britain decades just to return to the market access it currently enjoys, if it manages to get such sweet deals, which will depend largely on the EU and its kindness.


I didn't claim anything, you claim a lot of things however.

noemon wrote:Subject to the momentary interests of all these countries and their relationships with the EU as well as the stance of the EU in those countries. ;)


I meant taking existing deals with the EU as a basis for negotiations. The EU would have nothing to do with it.
User avatar
By noemon
#14696844
So what, that doesn't mean its a bad deal for us given the export-orientation of the economy.


This does not compute. You want to increase exports but you allow chinese goods to enter your market for free while your exports in China to be subject to tariffs, have you even considered the possibility Chinese goods taking over your goods and by the time the 15 year period has lapsed, all your swiss swatches and cheese factories belong to the chinese?

I didn't claim anything, you claim a lot of things however.


Sure....

I meant taking existing deals with the EU as a basis for negotiations. The EU would have nothing to do with it.


You either don't get it or pretend not to get it. Soon you will tell us the world is laid down with rose-petals and countries, blocks and super-states have absolutely nothing to do with anything. Venezuela can trade with the world and have unlimited access to global markets if only it wished it so like really really hard. The EU is a huge block that works both openly and in the shadows, Obama said with a clear voice, "the UK will have to stand last in line to conduct a trade deal with the US". And that is Obama, the US special relationship and all that jazz, what do you imagine Latin America, Canada, Japan and a whole bunch of countries are going to do? They will all turn around and take the EU-trade deals and simply carry business as usual? Aside from the fact that they have their own interests in doing whatever the fuck they feel like doing, they also have to consider the interests of their largest trading partner which is the EU and after they consider these interests, then they will consider British interests. And noone would know any better.
#14696852
Let's see where the Swiss economy and the EU economies as a whole are in 50 years' time. I know where I would put my money.
User avatar
By Beren
#14696855
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:Let's see where the Swiss economy and the EU economies as a whole are in 50 years' time. I know where I would put my money.

Are you supposed to be a great prophet or a brave gambler now? :lol:
By anasawad
#14696856
Whats going to happen next in the UK is that you're going to have:
1- Asian products flooding the market. With national industries being torn apart by competition,specially with no market protection of the EU.The UK now stands alone.
2- Sharks and wales will start buying out the UK and in ease because it wont be able reject it. And well, the drain begins and welcome to the US economy #2.

And ofcourse its too obvious to worth mention that the UK is going to have trade deficits with almost everyone on the planet. Since its production is no where near that of the EU, an average Asian industrial country, the US, or generally anyone who exports stuff, even if just minerals.
User avatar
By noemon
#14696858
The Swiss economy can be destroyed if some people will it and as banking becomes more and more agitating to the common folk both rightists and leftists will demand more and more regulations, financial taxes and levies as well as the lifting of secrecy so that taxes due are paid, the forces that are currently brewing in the continent are going that way and it is not very prudent supporting those forces while at the same time putting your money there. ;)
User avatar
By Rugoz
#14696861
noemon wrote:This does not compute. You want to increase exports but you allow chinese goods to enter your market for free while your exports in China to be subject to tariffs, have you even considered the possibility Chinese goods taking over your goods and by the time the 15 year period has lapsed, all your swiss swatches and cheese factories belong to the chinese?


You realize China is a gigantic market? Lots of rich people and industry that want quality stuff. Do you think experts are not consulted before such trade agreements are made?

noemon wrote:You either don't get it or pretend not to get it. Soon you will tell us the world is laid down with rose-petals and countries, blocks and super-states have absolutely nothing to do with anything. Venezuela can trade with the world and have unlimited access to global markets if only it wished it so like really really hard.


Trade is almost always mutually beneficial, between industrialized countries anyway. Continuing the existing trade relationship with the UK is thus fundamentally in everybody's interest. Of course political consideration might overrule this, but the UK is hardly a rogue state. The mess in Venezuela is not the result of sanctions or general lack of access to global markets.

noemon wrote:The Swiss economy can be destroyed if some people will it and as banking becomes more and more agitating to the common folk both rightists and leftists will demand more and more regulations, financial taxes and levies as well as the lifting of secrecy so that taxes due are paid, the forces that are currently brewing in the continent are going that way and it is not very prudent supporting those forces while at the same time putting your money there. ;)


What's with the pro-EU faction wanting to destroy everything and punish everybody?
User avatar
By noemon
#14696862
Rugoz wrote:You realize China is a gigantic market? Lots of rich people and industry that want quality stuff. Do you think experts are not consulted before such trade agreements are made?


You 're not saying anything.

Trade is almost always mutually beneficial, between industrialized countries anyway. Continuing the existing trade relationship with the UK is thus fundamentally in everybody's interest. Of course political consideration might overrule this, but the UK is hardly a rogue state. The mess in Venezuela is not the result of sanctions or general lack of access to global markets.


Unless other countries want to take over or overtake your strategic industries, people hit you when you are most vulnerable, once Brexit actually happens if it happens the UK will have to prostrate itself before every single country in the world and beg for a trade-deal, countries will operate as they normally do, sharks and piranhas.

What's with the pro-EU faction wanting to destroy everything and punish everybody?


It's not about want, me living in the UK and trading I do not want any of that to happen, but I am not naive to assume otherwise. The world is a tough place and everything is paid in this life not just the next.
By anasawad
#14696864
Unless other countries want to take over or overtake your strategic industries.

I keep wondering why almost every pro-Brexit here forgets that there is something called competition.

Continuing the existing trade relationship with the UK is thus fundamentally in everybody's interest.

Why ? If its weaker now and they can take advantage of the UK's situation and have more leverage.
Why would they say no and keep the old relations ?
#14696865
Beren wrote:Are you supposed to be a great prophet or a brave gambler now? :lol:

I've made a fortune out of Brexit. ;)

But seriously, there are some advantages to being able to tailor a trade deal to one's economy. Some in the EU, and perhaps you are one of them, have the same narrow view as the leave side who thinks there won't be any negative effects for the UK. While the EU has clearly a lot more weight in trade negotiations than Switzerland and the UK, it also has a very difficult task in reconciling the interests of the various economies of the member states, which are extremely different in nature. There will be trade-offs, especially for smaller countries, in these deals, as the overall EU economy is more important than its parts.

How this eventually translates into real world benefits for a country like Hungary or Spain compared to a tailor made approach that Switzerland can negotiate isn't easy to assess. One thing is clear however, the Swiss have done a stellar job so far, not only with respect to the many trade deals they have signed in recent years, but also how they have managed their relationship with the EU. Credit where credit's due and if they continue with this approach, including looking beyond the EU for their trade, I have more confidence in their ability to do what's best for their people than in the EU.

European posters are approaching American levels of chest-thumping when it comes to the EU. Again, if you have to sell your "voluntary" union through fear and punishment, don't be surprised if people increasingly object.

anasawad wrote:Whats going to happen next in the UK is that you're going to have:
1- Asian products flooding the market. With national industries being torn apart by competition,specially with no market protection of the EU.The UK now stands alone.
2- Sharks and wales will start buying out the UK and in ease because it wont be able reject it. And well, the drain begins and welcome to the US economy #2.

And ofcourse its too obvious to worth mention that the UK is going to have trade deficits with almost everyone on the planet. Since its production is no where near that of the EU, an average Asian industrial country, the US, or generally anyone who exports stuff, even if just minerals.

Seems too optimistic. I fully expect the UK to sink to the bottom of the Atlantic.
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