[JohnRawls]

Biden admin is not hopeful about White House race. They openly admit it.

Democrat voter base is much more diversified compared to Republicans. Biden admin's choices do not fit well with voter base. For example, most of pro-Gaza protesters in US universities are Democrat voters. They are not happy with what Biden does in Gaza conflict.

Biden has the independents though compared to Trump who literally tells them to fuck off, even the moderates from the Republican party. Its only a matter of them showing up for the election and that is it. If enough show up then Biden auto-wins.

[Rancid]

Two points on Gaza and the election.

1. Most Americans do not vote based on foreign policy issues. Israel-Gaza, Ukraine-Russia are not going to be a deciding factor.

2. Trump was quoted saying something to the effect that "Israel needs to finish the job". That is, he openly supports Israel killing Palestinians openly. College students that are pro-Palestine will mostly vote for Biden over Trump, begrudgingly. They will mostly vote for the lesser evil. Only a few morons that think giving up what little power they have (i.e. deciding not to vote) within the system will go that route. He will lose some votes from the people that don't understand how to the game works, and don't understand how incremental gains work, but those votes won't go to Trump either.

[Istanbuller]

Biden has the independents though compared to Trump who literally tells them to fuck off, even the moderates from the Republican party. Its only a matter of them showing up for the election and that is it. If enough show up then Biden auto-wins.

I just told you one reason. There are may be more cases which make Biden admin not hopeful about the election.

A Republican politician can be racist and get away with it easily. Because voter base is also vastly racist. But that is not the case with Democrats. A Democratic politician may not be able to get away with anti-Muslim rhetoric, for instance. This is a real hurdle for Democrats.

[Istanbuller]

Two points on Gaza and the election.

1. Most Americans do not vote based on foreign policy issues. Israel-Gaza, Ukraine-Russia are not going to be a deciding factor.
2. Trump was quoted saying something to the effect that "Israel needs to finish the job". That is, he openly supports Israel kill Palestinians openly. College students that are pro-Palestine will mostly vote for Biden over Trump? They will vote for the lesser evil at this time. Only a few morons that think giving up what little power they have (i.e. deciding not to vote) will go that loser route. He will lose some votes from the people that don't understand how to the game works, but those votes won't go to Trump.

Yes, i told that example to explain it is harder to convince voters in Democratic side than Republicans side.

[JohnRawls]

I just told you one reason. There are may be more cases which make Biden admin not hopeful about the election.

A Republican politician can be racist and get away with it easily. Because voter base is also vastly racist. But that is not the case with Democrats. A Democratic politician may not be able to get away with anti-Muslim rhetoric, for instance. This is a real hurdle for Democrats.

Its not about racism, its about your general political line. When you tell Nikki Hailey supporters to fuck of and you don't need them because they are RINOs and tell them "who the fuck are you even? it sends a clear message to all independents. This is the general problem with Trump and his cohort. They alienate everyone who is not a zaelot to large degree. Doesn't mean other groups won't begrudgingly vote for him but it alienates a lot. Especially the non-party affiliated people. This is not racism but either Trumps choice or the whole teams choice or whatever. It is not relelvant. It does give you the edge in primaries but gives you disadvantage during the main election and a significant one.

Now is it as bad as telling people to drink Clorox to heal Covid? Probably not. But still, it is not that far away in my opinion.

The biggest question of the election is actually inflation or how to shift the topic a bit away from it since economically US is doing super great under Biden since he took over. Economically Biden was perhaps the most efficient president in a very long time. But since inflation historically has been such a touchy topic then he is eating shit for it from the electorate. And since inflation works in the peoples minds as prices a year ago or two years ago then its something that usually normalises over several years or like 3-4-5. Hence the lingering effects will still remain during the election but to what degree is a good question. That is also Bidens job to shift the talk from that and soften the situation in that regard.

[Istanbuller]

Its not about racism, its about your general political line. When you tell Nikki Hailey supporters to fuck of and you don't need them because they are RINOs and tell them "who the fuck are you even? it sends a clear message to all independents. This is the general problem with Trump and his cohort. They alienate everyone who is not a zaelot to large degree. Doesn't mean other groups won't begrudgingly vote for him but it alienates a lot. Especially the non-party affiliated people. This is not racism but either Trumps choice or the whole teams choice or whatever. It is not relelvant. It does give you the edge in primaries but gives you disadvantage during the main election and a significant one.

Now is it as bad as telling people to drink Clorox to heal Covid? Probably not. But still, it is not that far away in my opinion.

The biggest question of the election is actually inflation or how to shift the topic a bit away from it since economically US is doing super great under Biden since he took over. Economically Biden was perhaps the most efficient president in a very long time. But since inflation historically has been such a touchy topic then he is eating shit for it from the electorate. And since inflation works in the peoples minds as prices a year ago or two years ago then its something that usually normalises over several years or like 3-4-5. Hence the lingering effects will still remain during the election but to what degree is a good question. That is also Bidens job to shift the talk from that and soften the situation in that regard.

Telling people "RINOs" can be really alienating. I agree with that. But how big is Nikki Haley's group?

"Independents" does not equal to "being moderate". That group of people can be far left, far right, moderate right, moderate left, libertarians, anarchists, immigrants, disadvantaged people. Who are you referring with "independents"?

Inflation is the most serious problem which an economy can face. If you have inflation problem, then it means that economy is not doing well. It depends on how severe it is. I am not living in America. It is better to ask American people here.

We have 70% rate of annual inflation in Turkey. Erdogan lost local elections due to that for the first time.

[JohnRawls]

Telling people "RINOs" can be really alienating. I agree with that. But how big is Nikki Haley's group?

"Independents" does not equal to "being moderate". That group of people can be far left, far right, moderate right, moderate left, libertarians, anarchists, immigrants, disadvantaged people. Who are you referring with "independents"?

Inflation is the most serious problem which an economy can face. If you have inflation problem, then it means that economy is not doing well. It depends on how severe it is. I am not living in America. It is better to ask American people here.

We have 70% rate of annual inflation in Turkey. Erdogan lost local elections due to that for the first time.

Not as much if salaries grow with the same speed or close to it while the amount of job increases. Which was the case more or less. Biden created more jobs than Obama, Trump and Bush SR and JR and Clinton combined by the way. Now, US did start from a lower base because of Covid so not all should be credited to Biden but still. Those are impressive numbers under Biden and him beating any expectations of the market several times. The economic policy of US was super solid under Biden in many aspects.

Independents are statistically more likely to be moderates since they don't fit in to one camp or the other. And besides Anarchists perhaps, Rs and Ds have pretty much everyone else covered already.

[Rancid]

I voted in a special local election today. Of course, I voted against the MAGA dipshits on the ballot.

Fuck MAGA.

[Tainari88]

I voted in a special local election today. Of course, I voted against the MAGA dipshits on the ballot.

Fuck MAGA.

Do you feel good voting against the MAGA?

Do you feel sorry for the Neo Nazis in Texas? Did you think about voting for them?

They need a throwaway vote for White Power....they are desperate. Do a pity vote!

The love you feel for the MAGAs...you are so beautiful.

[Deutschmania]

Do you feel good voting against the MAGA?

Do you feel sorry for the Neo Nazis in Texas? Did you think about voting for them?

They need a throwaway vote for White Power....they are desperate. Do a pity vote!

The love you feel for the MAGAs...you are so beautiful.

They already have Black collaborators though . This has always been the case , even during the Second World War .

[Tainari88]

They already have Black collaborators though . This has always been the case , even during the Second World War .

There are always people who only care about power and getting power by agreeing with who they think might be the winning horse in a horse race. They lack principles and ethics. A bunch of assholes mostly. They are everywhere. Sellouts are a dime a dozen.

[Rancid]

@JohnRawls

Indeed, the phrase many of been saying is that "You won't win a primary election without Trump, but you can't win a general election with him". The Republican party has really painted itself into a corner. Still, do not under estimate the power of stupid in America. Trump still has a chance.

Anyway, he's already starting to prime his base for when he starts to claim that this election is "rigged" when it turns out he loses again. He was asked if he will accept the results of these elections (Recall, he never accepted the results of the last one), and he said something like "Only if I believe they are not rigged". Obviously, he will claim, once again they were rigged when it doesn't go his way, and his moron followers might resort to political violence.

I'm still baffled at how we are allowing this traitor to run again.

[JohnRawls]

@JohnRawls

Indeed, the phrase many of been saying is that "You won't win a primary election without Trump, but you can't win a general election with him". The Republican party has really painted itself into a corner. Still, do not under estimate the power of stupid in America. Trump still has a chance.

Anyway, he's already starting to prime his base for when he starts to claim that this election is "rigged" when it turns out he loses again. He was asked if he will accept the results of these elections (Recall, he never accepted the results of the last one), and he said something like "Only if I believe they are not rigged". Obviously, he will claim, once again they were rigged when it doesn't go his way, and his moron followers might resort to political violence.

I'm still baffled at how we are allowing this traitor to run again.

If he does it again then the chance of him going to jail greatly increases. Also I never said its impossible, I just said its unlikely that he would win. I try to just look at global factors and the global factors are against Trump besides inflation. Can inflation basically alone beat Biden? The sad answer is yes but its unlikely. Because people are just irrational about some thing compared to others.

[RealPolitic]

@Rancid

College students that are pro-Palestine will mostly vote for Biden over Trump, begrudgingly. They will mostly vote for the lesser evil. Only a few morons that think giving up what little power they have (i.e. deciding not to vote) within the system will go that route.

I hope that is the case, but I also wonder if people don't like the choices on the ballot, they might decide simply to stay home. The couch could be a problem too. Apathy and people not getting out to vote, simply because they don't like the choices on the ballot could hand Trump a victory, which would be disastrous for the United States.

[Istanbuller]

Not as much if salaries grow with the same speed or close to it while the amount of job increases. Which was the case more or less. Biden created more jobs than Obama, Trump and Bush SR and JR and Clinton combined by the way. Now, US did start from a lower base because of Covid so not all should be credited to Biden but still. Those are impressive numbers under Biden and him beating any expectations of the market several times. The economic policy of US was super solid under Biden in many aspects.

Independents are statistically more likely to be moderates since they don't fit in to one camp or the other. And besides Anarchists perhaps, Rs and Ds have pretty much everyone else covered already.

It doesn't work in that way.

Wage hikes are also part of inflation. Also that results in unemployment. I don't know where you get "Biden created record number of jobs" thing. That is not true.

Inflation is a policy. If you ramp up money supply and government spending, you get inflation. It is called mismanagement of economy. It was the same under Trump. I think hearing this will make you happy. But there is really no difference between Trump and Biden in relation to this issue.

[RealPolitic]

@JohnRawls

The good news is it seems that here very recently, Trump is beginning to lose more and more support among Americans. I think most Americans are turning on Trump. I hope this trend continues and we see a Trump defeat this November. I was also very pleased to see the U.S. Congress passing the 61 billion dollars worth of aid that Ukraine desperately needs.

This will prevent the U.S. from having to fight a future war against Russia given that without U.S. aid, Ukraine would fall and Russia would eventually move on a NATO country. Probably a Baltic state country such as Estonia or Latvia or maybe all of them. It served the best interests of the U.S. to send that 61 billion dollar aid package.

It also appears that there are two more billion dollar aid packages being brought up for Ukraine too in addition to the 61 billion dollar aid package already passed. Not sure of all the details of the other two aid packages. These aid packages that the U.S. are providing to Ukraine are wise investments given it will save the U.S. a lot of blood and treasure in the long term by preventing the need of the U.S. to fight a major European war in the future.

This will also send China a cautionary tale about attacking Taiwan and thus serves the U.S. national security interests in the Pacific.

[Rancid]

It doesn't work in that way.

Wage hikes are also part of inflation. Also that results in unemployment. I don't know where you get "Biden created record number of jobs" thing. That is not true.

Inflation is a policy. If you ramp up money supply and government spending, you get inflation. It is called mismanagement of economy. It was the same under Trump. I think hearing this will make you happy. But there is really no difference between Trump and Biden in relation to this issue.

Generally speaking, there has been a jobs boom in America. Especially in manufacturing (reshoring). Biden is just taking credit for it because he just happens to be president now. THe reality is, the presiden't can't really affect this as strongly as people like to think. Basically, presidents always just take credit for stuff even if it's not really a result of their policies. Every president does this, they just take credit for anything good that happens.

That said, the CHIPS Act, did in fact help accelerate some of this.

[Sherlock Holmes]

Well I hope Trump loses, it was bad enough enduring the last election but since he lost that I see his overall position, standing seems to have diminished. Before the 2020 election here in Arizona, I'd always see Trump bumper stickers and Trump "shops" everywhere and Trump flags outside people's homes:



This time I'm simply not seeing it, not the same enthusiasm, devotion, confidence if it is there then its far less evident than in 2020. This hardly amounts to solid evidence that he's doomed, but I am pleased to witness the reduced fanaticism.

I'm actually so so tired of this BS, of the numpty republican knuckle draggers acting like they have credibility, acting like their actually competent. I just want it over with, it's negatively affected me these past five or six years, totally drained me.

[wat0n]

Well I hope Trump loses, it was bad enough enduring the last election but since he lost that I see his overall position, standing seems to have diminished. Before the 2020 election here in Arizona, I'd always see Trump bumper stickers and Trump "shops" everywhere and Trump flags outside people's homes:



This time I'm simply not seeing it, not the same enthusiasm, devotion, confidence if it is there then its far less evident than in 2020. This hardly amounts to solid evidence that he's doomed, but I am pleased to witness the reduced fanaticism.

I'm actually so so tired of this BS, of the numpty republican knuckle draggers acting like they have credibility, acting like their actually competent. I just want it over with, it's negatively affected me these past five or six years, totally drained me.

You can't claim to be an "outsider" when you've been President and you also can't claim that you can solve all problems when you clearly didn't when you had the chance of being President. It's no wonder many will be voting without much enthusiasm.

And yet, Trump still has a chance. Many voters will compare Biden's performance to Trump's, and surveys are clear that the top two issues are the economy and immigration.

OTOH, many other voters will adopt a "never Trump" position due to Jan 6 (particularly among Republicans) and others will go farther and take a "never GOP" position over abortion. Had Trump accepted the 2020 defeat and the GOP not overreached on abortion after Dobbs, Trump would be clearly the leading option. I think Biden still has the advantage because of the anti-Trump GOP voters, who seem to be something like 15-25% of the party base and may even go and vote Biden outright.

[skinster]

Only a few morons that think giving up what little power they have (i.e. deciding not to vote) within the system will go that route. He will lose some votes from the people that don't understand how to the game works, and don't understand how incremental gains work, but those votes won't go to Trump either.

How cute you think American voters have any powers in their votes and actually gain from them when they do.